No abstract

[1] The winter of 2009/2010 was characterized by record persistence of the negative phase of the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which caused several severe cold spells over Northern and Western Europe. This somehow unusual winter with respect to the most recent ones arose concurrently with public debate on climate change, during and after the Copenhagen climate negotiations. We show however that the cold European temperature anomaly of winter 2010 was (i) not extreme relative to winters of the past six decades, and (ii) warmer than expected from its record-breaking seasonal circulation indices such as NAO or blocking frequency. Daily flow-analogues of winter 2010, taken in past winters, were associated with much colder temperatures. The winter 2010 thus provides a consistent picture of a regional cold event mitigated by long-term climate warming.

This paper describes the main characteristics of CNRM-CM6-1, the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model of sixth generation jointly developed by Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM) and Cerfacs for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). The paper provides a description of each component of CNRM-CM6-1, including the coupling method and the new online output software. We emphasize where model's components have been updated with respect to the former model version, CNRM-CM5.1. In particular, we highlight major improvements in the representation of atmospheric and land processes. A particular attention has also been devoted to mass and energy conservation in the simulated climate system to limit long-term drifts. The climate simulated by CNRM-CM6-1 is then evaluated using CMIP6 historical and Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK) experiments in comparison with CMIP5 CNRM-CM5.1 equivalent experiments. Overall, the mean surface biases are of similar magnitude but with different spatial patterns. Deep ocean biases are generally reduced, whereas sea ice is too thin in the Arctic. Although the simulated climate variability remains roughly consistent with CNRM-CM5.1, its sensitivity to rising CO 2 has increased: the equilibrium climate sensitivity is 4.9 K, which is now close to the upper bound of the range estimated from CMIP5 models.

No abstract

No abstract

No abstract

Global warming is expected to affect midlatitude atmospheric dynamics through changes in the equator‐to‐pole temperature gradient. While the latitudinal expansion of the tropics would induce both a poleward shift and reinforcement of the westerlies, Arctic changes might counterbalance this effect. Beyond position and speed, potential changes in the flow waviness are crucial for midlatitude weather. Here we investigate such changes through an intuitive metric characterizing the flow sinuosity at 50°N. We find that despite a slight increase in recent reanalyses, the midlatitude sinuosity is projected to decrease in response to climate change according to CMIP5 simulations. Recent trends could therefore result from internal variability or different timings of tropical and polar influences. Future uncertainties are dominated by model discrepancies and partially linked to the dispersion in the equator‐to‐pole temperature gradient response. Our results support the hypothesis that a faster westerly flow is expected to be less sinuous (and vice‐versa).

The present study describes the atmospheric component of the sixth-generation climate models of the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), namely, ARPEGE-Climat 6.3. It builds up on more than a decade of model development and tuning efforts, which led to major updates of its moist physics. The vertical resolution has also been significantly increased, both in the boundary layer and in the stratosphere. ARPEGE-Climat 6.3 is now coupled to the new version (8.0) of the SURFace EXternalisée (SURFEX) surface model, in which several new features (e.g., floodplains, aquifers, and snow processes) improve the water cycle realism. The model calibration is discussed in depth. An amip-type experiment, in which the sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations are prescribed, and following the CMIP6 protocol, is extensively evaluated, in terms of climate mean state and variability. ARPEGE-Climat 6.3 is shown to improve over its previous version (5.1) by many climate features. Major improvements include the top-of-atmosphere and surface energy budgets in their various components (shortwave and longwave, total and clear sky), cloud cover, near-surface temperature, precipitation climatology and daily-mean distribution, and water discharges at the outlet of major rivers. In contrast, clouds over subtropical stratocumulus decks, several dynamical variables (sea level pressure, 500-hPa geopotential height), are still significantly biased. The tropical intraseasonal variability and diurnal cycle of precipitation, though improved, remained area of concerns for further model improvement. New biases also emerge, such as a lack of precipitation over several tropical continental areas. Within the CMIP6 context, ARPEGE-Climat 6.3 is the atmospheric component of CNRM-CM6-1 and CNRM-ESM2-1.Plain Language Summary Since the early 1990s, the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM) has been developing a global atmosphere model for climate applications. The present work presents its latest version, ARPEGE-Climat 6.3, as prepared for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It builds up on more than a decade of model development and tuning efforts. A CMIP6 amip-type numerical experiment, in which the sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations are prescribed, is evaluated, in terms of climate mean state and variability. ARPEGE-Climat 6.3 is shown to have better or similar skills compared to its previous version and to rank rather high among CMIP5 state-of-the-art models by many mean-state metrics. Major improvements include the top-ofatmosphere and surface energy budgets, cloud cover, near-surface temperature, precipitation climatology and daily-mean distribution, and water discharges at the outlet of major rivers. In contrast, clouds over the eastern part of ocean basins, and a few dynamical variables, such as sea level pressure, are still significantly biased. New biases also emerge, such as a lack of precipitation over several tropical continental areas. The remaining and n...