Abstract. Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMIP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMIP-Greenland, initMIP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMIP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue.

Abstract. Reliable projections of ice sheets' future contributions to sea-level rise require models that are able to accurately simulate grounding-line dynamics, starting from initial states consistent with observations. Here, we simulate the centennial evolution of the Amundsen Sea Embayment in response to a prescribed perturbation in order to assess the sensitivity of mass loss projections to the chosen friction law, depending on the initialisation strategy. To this end, three different model states are constructed by inferring both the initial basal shear stress and viscosity fields with various relative weights. Then, starting from each of these model states, prognostic simulations are carried out using a Weertman, a Schoof and a Budd friction law, with different parameter values. Although the sensitivity of projections to the chosen friction law tends to decrease when more weight is put on viscosity during initialisation, it remains significant for the most physically acceptable of the constructed model states. Independently of the considered model state, the Weertman law systematically predicts the lowest mass losses. In addition, because of its particular dependence on effective pressure, the Budd friction law induces significantly different grounding-line retreat patterns than the other laws and predicts significantly higher mass losses.