This study focuses on early labour market trajectories of Turkish and Maghreb origin women who graduated in Belgium (Flanders) between 2005 and 2016. In contrast to available literature that largely focuses on employment positions at one point, we assess whether there are ethnic differentials in entering a sustainable employment spell, operationalised as an employment spell of at least four consecutive quarters, leading to a gross monthly wage of at least 82% of the gross Belgian minimum wage and a work intensity of at least 40% of a full-time position in the fourth quarter of the employment spell. Subsequently, we consider ethnic differentials in the characteristics of the first sustainable employment spell (type of employment, type of contract and gross wage quintile), as well as the length of the sustainable employment spell. Using longitudinal microdata, we examine how and to what extent these differentials can be explained by individual, previous employment, household and parental characteristics. Results indicate that, compared to native women, Turkish and Maghreb origin women are less likely to enter and more likely to exit a first sustainable employment spell. These differentials with natives are largest for the intermediate generation and are reproduced and reinforced over labour market careers. Although ethnic differentials diminish after controlling for individual, previous employment, household and parental characteristics, substantial differences remain.

A sizeable body of literature has shown that the migrant-native employment gap is larger among women with children than among childless women, suggesting that the transition to parenthood has a stronger impact on the employment trajectories of migrant origin women compared to those of native women. However, due to the limited use of longitudinal data, our understanding of the mechanisms generating differential employment trajectories around the transition to parenthood remains limited. This study adopts a life course perspective to address path-dependencies in employment trajectories around the transition to motherhood. Using longitudinal data and fixed-effects models that compare within-individual changes in contractual working hours around the transition to parenthood between natives and second-generation migrants of Southern European and Turkish or Moroccan origin in Belgium, we find no migrant-native differentials among women with low employment rates before the birth of their first child and only limited differentials in employment trajectories around parenthood among women with medium and high employment rates before parenthood. This indicates that there is a strong path-dependency of employment trajectories around parenthood for migrant women and natives alike, but that second-generation migrant women generally have a lower pre-birth labour market attachment than native women which accounts for the frequently observed migrant-native differentials in maternal employment.

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Research indicates that the uptake of formal childcare for children under age 3 is lower among migrant origin parents than among native parents in most European countries, and that these differentials extend to the second generation. Despite considerable investments in formal childcare availability in many European countries, it remains unclear whether and to what extent expanding local childcare availability effectively diminishes migrant-native uptake differentials due to the lack of longitudinal research. Therefore, this study assesses for Belgium to what extent expansions in childcare availability within municipalities in the period 2010–2014 has increased the uptake of formal childcare for children under age 3 among households where the mother has a second generation Southern European, Maghreb or Turkish background, versus no migration background. We use longitudinal census and register data for Belgium that were linked to longitudinal tax return data on childcare expenses and municipality-level data on childcare availability for children aged 0–3. Our results show that Southern European and Turkish origin mothers become more likely to use formal childcare when childcare places become more widely available within their municipalities, but also that the uptake gap with native mothers persists, since there is no differential effect of increasing local childcare availability. Since local childcare expansions entail a slightly stronger increase in formal childcare uptake among Maghreb origin mothers compared to native mothers, this results in slightly decreasing migrant-native uptake gaps, although considerable uptake gaps remain. To our knowledge, this is the first longitudinal study addressing the relationship between local childcare availability and uptake differentials by migration background. This study can inspire avenues for follow-up research which could provide additional insight into the possible mechanisms behind the varying effects of increasing local childcare availability by migration background and the persisting migrant-native uptake gaps.

De arbeidsmarkt in Vlaanderen werd de voorbije jaren gekenmerkt door een historische daling van het werkloosheidscijfer – tot 2,9% in het vierde kwartaal van 2019 – en een dienovereenkomstige toename van de arbeidsmarktkrapte (STATBEL, 2020; WSE, 2019). Ook nationaal bereikte het werkloosheidscijfer in 2019 zijn laagste peil sinds 1975 (figuur 1a). Het toenemende onevenwicht tussen vraag en aanbod leek condities te creëren die de komende jaren zouden kunnen leiden tot een langverwachte inhaalbeweging van groepen die tot dan toe werden gekenmerkt door een minder gunstige arbeidsmarktpositie, waaronder mannen – maar vooral vrouwen – met een migratieachtergrond. Het uitbreken van een pandemie in het voorjaar van 2020 lijkt dat toekomstperspectief van de ene dag op de andere op losse schroeven te hebben gezet. Een forse krimp van het bbp lijkt in 2020 onafwendbaar, en ook de vrees voor een langdurige economische recessie neemt toe (Gopinath, 2020; NBB, 2020). De discussie over arbeidsmarktkrapte heeft plaatsgemaakt voor bespiegelingen over de huidige piek in tijdelijke werkloosheid, en de mate waarin die zich op termijn zal vertalen naar stijgende werkloosheidscijfers. De gedifferentieerde impact van eerdere recessies suggereert dat ook ditmaal een toename van de werkloosheid zich disproportioneel zal laten voelen in de positie van arbeidsmarktintreders, 50-plussers, personen met een migratieachtergrond en personen met een beperking.

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