International audienceWe describe some first results of an empirical study describing how social media and SMS were used in coordinating humanitarian relief after the Haiti Earthquake in January 2010. Current information systems for crisis management are increasingly incorporating information obtained from citizens transmitted via social media and SMS. This information proves particularly useful at the aggregate level. However it has led to some problems: information overload and processing difficulties, variable speed of information delivery, managing volunteer communities, and the high risk of receiving inaccurate or incorrect information
This paper addresses modeling and simulating pedestrian trajectories when interacting with an autonomous vehicle in a shared space. Most pedestrian–vehicle interaction models are not suitable for predicting individual trajectories. Data-driven models yield accurate predictions but lack generalizability to new scenarios, usually do not run in real time and produce results that are poorly explainable. Current expert models do not deal with the diversity of possible pedestrian interactions with the vehicle in a shared space and lack microscopic validation. We propose an expert pedestrian model that combines the social force model and a new decision model for anticipating pedestrian–vehicle interactions. The proposed model integrates different observed pedestrian behaviors, as well as the behaviors of the social groups of pedestrians, in diverse interaction scenarios with a car. We calibrate the model by fitting the parameters values on a training set. We validate the model and evaluate its predictive potential through qualitative and quantitative comparisons with ground truth trajectories. The proposed model reproduces observed behaviors that have not been replicated by the social force model and outperforms the social force model at predicting pedestrian behavior around the vehicle on the used dataset. The model generates explainable and real-time trajectory predictions. Additional evaluation on a new dataset shows that the model generalizes well to new scenarios and can be applied to an autonomous vehicle embedded prediction.
Human behaviour during crisis evacuations is social in nature. In particular, social attachment theory posits that proximity of familiar people, places, objects, etc., promotes calm and a feeling of safety, while their absence triggers panic or flight. In closely bonded groups such as families, members seek each other and evacuate as one. This makes attachment bonds necessary in the development of realistic models of mobility during crises. This article presents a review of evacuation behaviour, theories on social attachment, crisis mobility, and agent-based models. It was found that social attachment influences mobility in the different stages of evacuation (pre, during and post). Based on these findings, a multi-agent model of mobility during seismic crises (SOLACE) is being developed, and it is implemented using the belief, desire and intention (BDI) agent architecture.
Managing the uncertainties that arise in disasters-such as ship fire-can be extremely challenging. Previous work has typically focused either on modeling crowd behavior or hazard dynamics, targeting fully known environments. However, when a disaster strikes, uncertainty about the nature, extent and further development of the hazard is the rule rather than the exception. Additionally, crowd and hazard dynamics are both intertwined and uncertain, making evacuation planning extremely difficult. To address this challenge, we propose a novel spatio-temporal probabilistic model that integrates crowd with hazard dynamics, using a ship fire as a proof-of-concept scenario. The model is realized as a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), supporting distinct kinds of crowd evacuation behavior-both descriptive and normative (optimal). Descriptive modeling is based on studies of physical fire models, crowd psychology models, and corresponding flow models, while we identify optimal behavior using Ant-Based Colony Optimization (ACO). Simulation results demonstrate that the DNB model allows us to track and forecast the movement of people until they escape, as the hazard develops from time step to time step. Furthermore, the ACO provides safe paths, dynamically responding to current threats.
Social attachment theory states that individuals seek the proximity of attachment figures (e.g. family members, friends, colleagues, familiar places or objects) when faced with threat. During disasters, this means that family members may seek each other before evacuating, gather personal property before heading to familiar exits and places, or follow groups/crowds, etc. This hard-wired human tendency should be considered in the assessment of risk and the creation of disaster management plans. Doing so may result in more realistic evacuation procedures and may minimise the number of casualties and injuries. In this context, a dynamic spatio-temporal analysis of seismic risk is presented using SOLACE, a multi-agent model of pedestrian behaviour based on social attachment theory implemented using the Belief-Desire-Intention approach. The model focuses on the influence of human, social, physical and temporal factors on successful evacuation. Human factors considered include perception and mobility defined by age. Social factors are defined by attachment bonds, social groups, population distribution, and cultural norms. Physical factors refer to the location of the epicentre of the earthquake, spatial distribution/layout and attributes of environmental objects such as buildings, roads, barriers (cars), placement of safe areas, evacuation routes, and the resulting debris/damage from the earthquake. Experiments tested the influence of time of the day, presence of disabled persons and earthquake intensity. Initial results show that factors that influence arrivals in safe areas include (a) human factors (age, disability, speed), (b) pre-evacuation behaviours, (c) perception distance (social attachment, time of day), (d) social interaction during evacuation, and (e) physical and spatial aspects, such as limitations imposed by debris (damage), and the distance to safe areas. To validate the results, scenarios will be designed with stakeholders, who will also take part in the definition of a serious game. The recommendation of this research is that both social and physical aspects should be considered when defining vulnerability in the analysis of risk.
Each summer in Australia, bushfires burn many hectares of forest, causing deaths, injuries, and destroying property. Agent-based simulation is a powerful tool for decisionmakers to explore different strategies for managing such crisis, testing them on a simulated population; but valid results require realistic underlying models. It is therefore essential to be able to compare models using different architectures to represent the human behaviour, on objective and subjective criteria. In this paper we describe two simulations of the Australian population's behaviour in bushfires: one with a finite-state machine architecture; one with a BDI architecture. We then compare these two models with respect to a number of criteria.
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