Two univariate indices of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) based on outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) are developed to track the convective component of the MJO while taking into account the seasonal cycle. These are compared with the all-season Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index of Wheeler and Hendon derived from a multivariate EOF of circulation and OLR. The gross features of the OLR and circulation of composite MJOs are similar regardless of the index, although RMM is characterized by stronger circulation. Diversity in the amplitude and phase of individual MJO events between the indices is much more evident; this is demonstrated using examples from the Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) field campaign and the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) virtual campaign. The use of different indices can lead to quite disparate conclusions concerning MJO timing and strength, and even as to whether or not an MJO has occurred. A disadvantage of using daily OLR as an EOF basis is that it is a much noisier field than the large-scale circulation, and filtering is necessary to obtain stable results through the annual cycle. While a drawback of filtering is that it cannot be done in real time, a reasonable approximation to the original fully filtered index can be obtained by following an endpoint smoothing method. When the convective signal is of primary interest, the authors advocate the use of satellite-based metrics for retrospective analysis of the MJO for individual cases, as well as for the analysis of model skill in initiating and evolving the MJO.
This study examines the diurnal cycle of rainfall and cloudiness associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) using TRMM rainfall rate and ISCCP multilevel cloud fraction data. There are statistically significant differences in diurnal cycle amplitude and phase between suppressed and enhanced envelopes of MJO convection. The amplitude of the diurnal rainfall rate and middle–deep cloudiness increases within enhanced MJO convection, especially over the ocean. However, the differences in diurnal cycle amplitude between enhanced and suppressed MJO are generally smaller than the differences in daily mean values, so that its relative contribution to total rainfall or cloudiness variance within enhanced MJO convection becomes smaller. Near the coastlines of islands within the Maritime Continent, the diurnal cycle amplitude tends to increase 5–10 days prior to the arrival of the peak enhanced MJO convection, but this relationship is weaker over the interior areas of larger islands where the climatological diurnal amplitude is already large. Within enhanced MJO convection, the diurnal rainfall peak is frequently delayed by about 3 h and cloud height decays at slower rate compared to suppressed conditions. More stratiform rainfall occurs following the peak convective rainfall within enhanced MJO convection, delaying the total rainfall peak by a few hours as a result of its greater horizontal extent. The results of this study suggest that the MJO modulates both the amplitude and phase of the diurnal cycle of tropical rainfall and cloudiness by influencing cloud type population distribution and associated rainfall rates.
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