[1] Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo-fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming. , et al. (2012), Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 26, GB4007,

Aim To evaluate the biomization technique for reconstructing past vegetation in the Eastern Mediterranean–Black Sea–Caspian‐Corridor using an extensive modern pollen data set and comparing reconstructions to potential vegetation and observed land cover data. Location The region between 28–48°N and 22–62°E. Methods We apply the biomization technique to 1,387 modern pollen samples, representing 1,107 entities, to reconstruct the distribution of 13 broad vegetation categories (biomes). We assess the results using estimates of potential natural vegetation from the European Vegetation Map and the Physico‐Geographic Atlas of the World. We test whether anthropogenic disturbance affects reconstruction quality using land use information from the Global Land Cover data set. Results The biomization scheme successfully predicts the broadscale patterns of vegetation across the region, including changes with elevation. The technique discriminates deserts from shrublands, the prevalence of woodlands in moister lowland sites, and the presence of temperate and mixed forests at higher elevations. Quantitative assessment of the reconstructions is less satisfactory: the biome is predicted correctly at 44% of the sites in Europe and 33% of the sites overall. The low success rate is not a reflection of anthropogenic impacts: only 33% of the samples are correctly assigned after the removal of sites in anthropogenically altered environments. Open vegetation is less successfully predicted (33%) than forest types (73%), reflecting the under‐representation of herbaceous taxa in pollen assemblages and the impact of long‐distance pollen transport into open environments. Samples from small basins (<1 km2) are more likely to be reconstructed accurately, with 58% of the sites in Europe and 66% of all sites correctly predicted, probably because they sample an appropriate pollen source area to reflect regional vegetation patterns in relatively heterogeneous landscapes. While methodological biases exist, the low confidence of the quantitative comparisons should not be over‐emphasized because the target maps themselves are not accurate representations of vegetation patterns in this region. Main Conclusions The biomization scheme yields reasonable reconstructions of the broadscale vegetation patterns in the Eastern Mediterranean–Black Sea–Caspian‐Corridor, particularly if appropriate‐sized sampling sites are used. Our results indicate biomization could be used to reconstruct changing patterns of vegetation in response to past climate changes in this region.

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Analysis of pollen, dinoflagellate cysts and lithology was carried out on ten cores from the western deep Black Sea and combined with radiocarbon dating to reconstruct the vegetation, climate and palaeoecological conditions. All the cores record a consistent sequence of Lateglacial and early Holocene steppe vegetation, which persisted until about 7100-7500 yr BP when Quercus, Corylus, Tilia and other temperate trees expanded, at about the same time as the influx of Mediterranean waters that resulted in sapropel deposition in the deep Black Sea. The sequence implies dry climatic conditions and a low level of the Black Sea during the early Holocene.