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a b s t r a c tWe investigate the uncertainty in bedrock depth and soil hydraulic parameters on the stability of a variably-saturated slope in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We couple Monte Carlo simulation of a threedimensional flow model with numerical limit analysis to calculate confidence intervals of the safety factor using a 22-day rainfall record. We evaluate the marginal and joint impact of bedrock depth and soil hydraulic uncertainty. The mean safety factor and its 95% confidence interval evolve rapidly in response to the storm events. Explicit recognition of uncertainty in the hydraulic properties and depth to bedrock increases significantly the probability of failure.

This paper aims to enhance the performance of Newton–Krylov solvers for coupled poromechanical problems with two‐phase flow. In particular, we investigate the impact of capillary pressure on preconditioning strategies. Capillarity complicates the coupling between the solid deformation and fluid pressure degrees of freedom, as well as increases the nonlinearity of the system. Depending on the capillary pressure relation used in the constitutive formulation, the flow equations may exhibit a spectrum of advection‐dominated to diffusion‐dominated behavior. We propose preconditioning approaches that account for this behavior and lead to robust numerical performance within a broad range of regimes.

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