IMPORTANCE In 2017, the International Panel on Diagnosis of Multiple Sclerosis revised the McDonald 2010 criteria for the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis (MS). The new criteria are easier to apply and could lead to more and earlier diagnoses. It is important to validate these criteria globally for their accuracy in clinical practice. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the 2017 criteria vs the 2010 criteria in prediction of clinically definite MS in patients with a typical clinically isolated syndrome (CIS). DESIGN, SETTING AND PATIENTS A total of 251 patients at Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands, in collaboration with several regional hospitals, fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Thirteen patients received another diagnosis early in the diagnostic process and therefore were excluded from the analyses. Nine patients with CIS declined to participate in the study. This left 229 patients who were included between March 2006 and August 2016 in this prospective CIS cohort. Patients underwent a baseline magnetic resonance imaging scan within 3 months after onset of symptoms and, if clinically required, a lumbar puncture was performed. Data were analyzed between December 2017 and January 2018. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and positive and negative predictive value were calculated after 1, 3, and 5 years for the 2017 vs the 2010 criteria. RESULTS Among the 229 patients with CIS, 167 were women (73%), and the mean (SD) age was 33.5 (8.2) years. One hundred thirteen patients (49%) were diagnosed as having CDMS during a mean (SD) follow-up time of 65.3 (30.9) months. Sensitivity for the 2017 criteria was higher than for the 2010 criteria (68%; 95% CI, 57%-77% vs 36%; 95% CI, 27%-47%; P < .001), but specificity was lower (61%; 95% CI, 50%-71% vs 85%; 95% CI, 76%-92%; P < .001). Using the 2017 criteria, more MS diagnoses could be made at baseline (n = 97 [54%]; 95% CI, 47%-61% vs n = 46 [26%]; 95% CI, 20%-32%; P < .001). In the group with at least 5 years of follow-up, 33% of patients who were diagnosed as having MS using the 2017 criteria did not experience a second attack during follow-up vs 23% when using the 2010 criteria. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The 2017 revised McDonald criteria are associated with greater sensitivity but less specificity for a second attack than the previous 2010 criteria. The tradeoff is that it leads to a higher number of MS diagnoses in patients with a less active disease course.

was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.The copyright holder for this preprint (which . http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/143933 doi: bioRxiv preprint first posted online Jul. 13, 2017; 2 Abstract:We assembled and analyzed genetic data of 47,351 multiple sclerosis (MS) subjects and 68,284 control subjects and establish a reference map of the genetic architecture of MS that includes 200 autosomal susceptibility variants outside the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), one chromosome X variant, and 32 independent associations within the extended MHC. We used an ensemble of methods to prioritize up to 551 potentially associated MS susceptibility genes, that implicate multiple innate and adaptive pathways distributed across the cellular components of the immune system. Using expression profiles from purified human microglia, we do find enrichment for MS genes in these brain-resident immune cells. Thus, while MS is most likely initially triggered by perturbation of peripheral immune responses the functional responses of microglia and other brain cells are also altered and may have a role in targeting an autoimmune process to the central nervous system.

SummaryMultiple sclerosis is a complex neurological disease, with ∼20% of risk heritability attributable to common genetic variants, including >230 identified by genome-wide association studies. Multiple strands of evidence suggest that much of the remaining heritability is also due to additive effects of common variants rather than epistasis between these variants or mutations exclusive to individual families. Here, we show in 68,379 cases and controls that up to 5% of this heritability is explained by low-frequency variation in gene coding sequence. We identify four novel genes driving MS risk independently of common-variant signals, highlighting key pathogenic roles for regulatory T cell homeostasis and regulation, IFNγ biology, and NFκB signaling. As low-frequency variants do not show substantial linkage disequilibrium with other variants, and as coding variants are more interpretable and experimentally tractable than non-coding variation, our discoveries constitute a rich resource for dissecting the pathobiology of MS.

IMPORTANCE There is a growing number of therapies that could be administered after the first symptom of central nervous system demyelination. These drugs can delay multiple sclerosis (MS) diagnosis and slow down future disability. However, treatment of patients with benign course may not be needed; therefore, there is a need for biomarkers to predict long-term prognosis in patients with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS).OBJECTIVE To investigate whether the T-cell activation marker soluble CD27 (sCD27) measured in cerebrospinal fluid of patients at time of a first attack is associated with a subsequent diagnosis of MS and a higher relapse rate. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTSThis prospective study included 77 patients with CIS between March 2002 and May 2015 in a tertiary referral center for multiple sclerosis, in collaboration with several regional hospitals. Patients with CIS underwent a lumbar puncture and magnetic resonance imaging scan within 6 months after first onset of symptoms.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Soluble CD27 levels were determined in cerebrospinal fluid using a commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Cox regression analyses was used to calculate univariate and multivariate hazard ratios for MS diagnosis. Association between sCD27 levels and relapse rate was assessed using a negative binomial regression model. RESULTS Among 77 patients with CIS, 50 were female (79.5%), and mean (SD) age was 32.7 (7.4) years. Mean (SD) age in the control individuals was 33.4 (9.5) years, and 20 were female (66.7%).Patients with CIS had higher cerebrospinal fluid sCD27 levels than control individuals (geometric mean, 31.3 U/mL; 95% CI, 24.0-40.9 vs mean, 4.67 U/mL; 95% CI, 2.9-7.5; P < .001). During a mean (SD) follow-up of 54.8 (35.1) months, 39 of 77 patients (50.6%) were diagnosed as having MS. In a model adjusted for magnetic resonance imaging and cerebrospinal fluid measurements, sCD27 levels were associated with a diagnosis of MS (hazard ratio, 2.4 per 100 U/mL increase in sCD27 levels; 95% CI, 1.27-4.53; P = .007). Additionally, patients with MS with high sCD27 levels (median, >31.4 U/mL) at the time of CIS had a 5.5 times higher annualized relapse rate than patients with low sCD27 levels (annualized relapse rate, 0.06 vs 0.33; P = .02).CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Soluble CD27 in cerebrospinal fluid of patients with CIS was associated with MS diagnosis and a high relapse rate. Therefore, sCD27 is an activation molecule directly related to the immunopathology of the disease and is a potential clinical marker to help in treatment decisions after a first attack of suspected MS.