In this paper we derive a new mean-risk hedge ratio based on the concept of Value at Risk (VaR). The proposed zero-VaR hedge ratio has an analytical solution and it converges to the MV hedge ratio under a pure martingale process or normality. A bivariate constant correlation GARCH(1,1) model with an error correction term is employed to estimate expected returns and time-varying volatilities of the spot and futures in S&P 500 index. The empirical results indicates that the joint normality and martingale process do not hold for S&P 500 futures and the conventional minimum variance hedge is inappropriate for a hedger who only cares about downside risk. Eventually, this article provides an alternative hedging method for a practitioner to use the concept of Value-at-Risk to reflect the risk-averse level.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.