Wave extreme events can be understood as the combination of storm-intensity, directionality and intra-time distribution. However, the dependence structure among these factors is still unclear. A methodology has been developed to model wave-storms whose components are linked together. The model is composed by three parts: an intensity module, a wave directionality module, and a intra-time distribution module. In the Storm-intensity sub-model, generalized Pareto distributions and hierarchical Archimedean copulas have been used to characterize the storm energy, unitary energy, peak wave-period and duration. In the Directionality and the Intra-time sub-models, the wave direction (at the peak of the storm) and the storm growth-decay rates are linked to the variables from the intensity model, respectively. The model is applied to the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean). The outcomes denote spatial patterns that coincide with the state of knowledge. The proposed methodology is able to provide boundary conditions for wave and near-shore studies, saving computational time and establishing the dependence of the proposed variables. Such synthetic storms reproduce the inter-variable co-dependence of the original data.

Storm Gloria (January 19–24, 2020) hit the NW Mediterranean Sea with heavy rainfall, strong easterly winds, and very high waves, causing structural damages and 13 fatalities. The low-lying Ebro Delta (ED) region was severely inundated, ruining rice fields and seaside promenades. A variety of Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) modeling and observational products were jointly used to examine the fingerprint of Gloria and the response of the upper oceanic layer. According to the results, Gloria can be interpreted as a high-impact once-in-a-decade metocean event where various historical records were beaten. The 99th percentile of several parameters (wind speed, significant wave height, wave period, and surface current velocity), derived from long-term observational time series, was persistently exceeded. The atmospheric surge, albeit not negligible, exerted a secondary role in ED. The ability of a high-frequency radar deployed in this region (HFR-ED) to characterize the striking features of the storm was quantified from both waves and circulation aspects. Consistent radar current observations were subsequently compared against the 5-day-ahead forecast of CMEMS Iberia-Biscay-Ireland (IBI) regional ocean model to determine, from an Eulerian perspective, the strengths and shortcomings in its predictive capabilities. Time-averaged maps of surface circulation, superimposed with fields of Instantaneous Rate of Separation (IROS), were derived to resolve flow features and identify areas of elevated particles dispersion, respectively. The mean and P99 values of IROS almost doubled the historical statistics in the vicinity of the northern Ebro hemidelta. Although IBI predicted moderately well basic features of the storm-induced circulation, results suggests that coastal transport processes, likely modulated by wave-current interactions, were not fully captured. Furthermore, current estimations from other two radar systems, overlooking immediate choke points like the Ibiza Channel and the Strait of Gibraltar, evidenced Gloria’s remote-effect in the anomalous circulation patterns observed, that altered the usual water exchanges between adjacent sub-basins. Finally, three-dimensional outcomes from IBI were used to elucidate the impact of this moving storm at different depth levels. Data analyses illustrated that Gloria caused a large increase in kinetic energy and a significant deepening of the mixed layer depth.

Extreme events, such as wave-storms, need to be characterized for coastal infrastructure design purposes. Such description should contain information on both the univariate behaviour and the joint-dependence of storm-variables. These two aspects have been here addressed through generalized Pareto distributions and hierarchical Archimedean copulas. A non-stationary model has been used to highlight the relationship between these extreme events and non-stationary climate. It has been applied to a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 Climate-Change scenario, for a fetch-limited environment (Catalan Coast). In the non-stationary model, all considered variables decrease in time, except for storm-duration at the northern part of the Catalan Coast. The joint distribution of storm variables presents cyclical fluctuations, with a stronger influence of climate dynamics than of climate itself.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Episodic coastal hazards associated to sea storms are responsible for sudden and intense changes in coastal morphology. Climate change and local anthropogenic activities such as river regulation and urban growth are raising risk levels in coastal hotspots, like low-lying areas of river deltas. This urges to revise present management strategies to guarantee their future sustainability, demanding a detailed diagnostic of the hazard evolution. In this paper, flooding and erosion under current and future conditions have been assessed at local scale at the urban area of Riumar, a touristic enclave placed at the Ebro Delta (Spain). Process-based models have been used to address the interaction between beach morphology and storm waves, as well as the influence of coastal environment complexity. Storm waves have been propagated with SWAN wave model and have provided the forcings for XBeach, a 2DH hydro-morphodynamic model. Results show that future trends in sea level rise and wave forcing produce non-linear variations of the flooded area and the volume of mobilized sediment resulting from marine storms. In particular, the balance between flooding and sediment transport will shift depending on the relative sea level. Wave induced flooding and long-shore sand transport seem to be diminished in the future, whereas static sea level flooding and cross-shore sediment transport are exacerbated. Therefore, the characterization of tipping points in the coastal response can help to develop robust and adaptive plans to manage climate change impact in sandy wave dominated coasts with a low-lying hinterland and a complex shoreline morphology.