A coupled atmospheric/wildfire behavior model is described that utilizes physics-based process models to represent wildfire behavior. Five simulations are presented, four of which are highly idealized situations that are meant to illustrate some of the dependencies of the model on environmental conditions. The fifth simulation consists of a fire burning in complex terrain with non-homogeneous vegetation and realistic meteorological conditions. The simulated fire behavior develops out of the coupling of a set of very complex processes and not from prescribed rules based on empirical data. This represents a new direction in wildfire modeling that we believe will eventually help decision makers and land managers do their jobs more effectively.
In this text we describe an initial attempt to incorporate discrete porous element fuel beds into the coupled atmosphere–wildfire behavior model HIGRAD/FIRETEC. First we develop conceptual models for use in translating measured tree data (in this case a ponderosa pine forest) into discrete fuel elements. Then data collected at experimental sites near Flagstaff, Arizona are used to create a discontinuous canopy fuel representation in HIGRAD/FIRETEC. Four simulations are presented with different canopy and understory configurations as described in the text. The results are discussed in terms of the same two discrete locations within the canopy for each simulation. The canopy structure had significant effects on the balance between radiative and convective heating in driving the fire and indeed sometimes determined whether a specific tree burned or not. In our simulations the ground fuel density was the determining factor in the overall spread rate of the fire, even when the overstory was involved in the fire. This behavior is well known in the fire meteorology community. In the future, simulations of this type could help land managers to better understand the role of canopy and understory structure in determining fire behavior, and thus help them decide between the different thinning and fuel treatment strategies available to them.
Ten simulations were performed with the HIGRAD/FIRETEC wildfire behaviour model in order to explore its utility in studying wildfire behaviour in inhomogeneous topography. The goal of these simulations is to explore the potential extent of the coupling between the fire, atmosphere, and topography. The ten simulations described in this paper include five different topographies, each run with two different ambient wind speeds of 6 and 12 m s–1. The five topologies explored are: an idealised hill (which serves as the base centerline for the other topographies), two variations of the hill with lateral gradients downwind from the ignition line (one sloping up from the ‘hill’ at the centerline to form an upward sloping canyon parallel to the ambient wind, and the other sloping down from the centerline to form a ridge parallel to the ambient flow), one with a second hill upwind of the ignition line such that the fire is ignited in the bottom of a canyon that runs perpendicular to the ambient wind, and finally a flat terrain. The four non-trivial topographies have the same profile along the centerline downwind of the ignition line to help assess the impacts of topographic gradients that are perpendicular to the ambient wind. It is hoped that analysis of these simulations will help reveal where point-functional models are sufficient, where topographically modified wind fields are needed, and where fully coupled fire and transport models are necessary to properly describe wildfire behaviour.
Landscape heterogeneity shapes species distributions, interactions, and fluctuations. Historically, in dry forest ecosystems, low canopy cover and heterogeneous fuel patterns often moderated disturbances like fire. Over the last century, however, increases in canopy cover and more homogeneous patterns have contributed to altered fire regimes with higher fire severity. Fire management strategies emphasize increasing within-stand heterogeneity with aggregated fuel patterns to alter potential fire behavior. Yet, little is known about how such patterns may affect fire behavior, or how sensitive fire behavior changes from fuel patterns are to winds and canopy cover. Here, we used a physics-based fire behavior model, FIRETEC, to explore the impacts of spatially aggregated fuel patterns on the mean and variability of stand-level fire behavior, and to test sensitivity of these effects to wind and canopy cover. Qualitative and quantitative approaches suggest that spatial fuel patterns can significantly affect fire behavior. Based on our results we propose three hypotheses: (1) aggregated spatial fuel patterns primarily affect fire behavior by increasing variability; (2) this variability should increase with spatial scale of aggregation; and (3) fire behavior sensitivity to spatial pattern effects should be more pronounced under moderate wind and fuel conditions.
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