This study presents a new method, the MYRIAD – Hazard Event Sets Algorithm (MYRIAD-HESA), that generates historically-based multi-hazard event sets. MYRIAD-HESA is a fully open-access method that can create multi-hazard event sets from any hazard events that occur on varying time, space, and intensity scales. In the past, multi-hazards have predominately been studied on a local or continental scale, or have been limited to specific hazard combinations, such as the combination between droughts and heatwaves. Therefore, we exemplify our approach through generating a global multi-hazard event set database, spanning from 2004 to 2017, which includes eleven hazards from varying hazard classes (e.g. meteorological, geophysical, hydrological and climatological). This global database provides new insights on the frequency of different multi-hazard events and their hotspots. Additionally, we explicitly incorporate a temporal dimension in MYRIAD-HESA, the time-lag. The time-lag, or time between the occurrence of hazards, is used to determine potentially impactful events that occurred in close succession. Varying time-lags have been tested in MYRIAD-HESA, and are analysed using North America as a case study. Alongside the MYRIAD-HESA, the multi-hazard event sets, MYRIAD-HES, is openly available to further increase the understanding of multi-hazard events in the disaster risk community. The open source nature of MYRIAD-HESA provides flexibility to conduct multi-risk assessments by, for example, incorporating higher resolution data for an area of interest.
<p>While the last decade saw substantial scientific advances in studies aimed at improving our understanding of natural hazard risk, research and policy commonly address risk from a single-hazard, single-sector perspective. Thus, not considering the spatial and temporal interconnections of these events. Single-hazards risk analyses are often inaccurate and incomplete when multi-hazard disasters occur, as the interaction between them may lead to a different impact than summing the impacts of single events.</p> <p>A key first step to reduce this inaccuracy is to create greater understanding of realistic multi-hazard event sets that better examines statistical dependencies between hazard types. Therefore, it is important to understand the spatial and temporal aspects of each individual hazard in order to evaluate when multiple coinciding hazards are a multi-hazard event. To do so, single hazards datasets for meteorological, geological, hydrological and climatological events are explored with the use of a decision tree. The decision tree accounts for varying intensities and time-lags between hazards to better address the dynamics of vulnerability. This paper provides a decision tree that enables realistic multi-hazard event sets to be created based on varying assumptions (such as, the time-lag, the time between two individual hazards). By generating a, first of its kind, global multi-hazard event set database, spanning from 2004 to 2016, we achieve a greater knowledge of the different types of multi-hazards, such as triggering, amplifying, compound and consecutive events, as well as their interconnections. This global dataset provides practitioners and other stakeholders with insights on the frequency of different multi-hazard events and their hotspots. The methods provided in this paper is opensource and can be used by other researchers to conduct a more comprehensive multi-risk assessment.</p>
<p>There are a number of European level datasets which have been produced over the last decade for natural perils to provide stochastic and probabilistic results at sites, or across the whole of Europe. As part of the MYRIAD-EU project, a key review of historical individual and multiple peril datasets has been made in order to create a compendium of useable results for regional level analysis in MYRIAD.</p> <p>It uses datasets from SERA-EU, SHARE and ECA for earthquake, RAIN and PRIMAVERA for weather-related disasters such as storms, tornadoes and other events, historical volcanic eruption data from LAMEVE and VOGRIPA, hydrological data and past flood events from databases such as the work of DFO, MODIS, datasets from VU Amsterdam and other research institutions, and bushfire data from EFFIS and other local databases as well as heat wave and cold wave data from multiple datasets.</p> <p>Where possible, stochastic event sets have been created in order to allow for concurrent and coinciding events to be identified. In many cases, stochastic event sets have not yet been able to be implemented and should be considered as a first step towards a fully event based process. As part of the scenario studies within MYRIAD-EU, probabilistic results will be turned into specific events in order to examine the risk and feedback loops associated with the different event combinations.</p> <p>This effort has been placed on the MYRIAD-EU Zenodo, and provides the basis for studies into risk in terms of concurrent disasters.</p>
<div id=":2vu" class="Ar Au Ao"> <div id=":2vq" class="Am Al editable LW-avf tS-tW tS-tY" tabindex="1" role="textbox" contenteditable="true" spellcheck="false" aria-label="Message Body" aria-multiline="true" aria-owns=":2yn" aria-controls=":2yn"> <p>Over the past 20 years, the CATDAT disaster database has been collected using various research, government and private sector sources in order to examine the social and economic impacts of disasters globally and has been used extensively in the media both in post-disaster comparisons, as well as a standalone.</p> <p>To aid the understanding of what disaster damages and losses actually entail, as well as to reduce the amount of miscommunication in the media, a new style of outreach is being used where a database for the European part of CATDAT is being improved and released over a number of years (2021-2026).</p> <p>For Europe, the EEA-CATDAT database (https://www.eea.europa.eu/ims/economic-losses-from-climate-related) is presented which takes into account weather and climate-related extreme events in addition to geophysical events.</p> <p>Over a 5-year period, a combination of updates to the database have been and will be implemented such as public outreach programs/workshops to understand better what is counted in disasters, how to combine together the socio-economic effects of multiple disasters properly, and where these events were actually located (i.e. including the footprints of historical events).</p> <p>In addition, the commonly made errors in databases such as wrong event times, transcript errors in socioeconomic losses, faulty economic and social indicators for comparison, inflation and normalisation problems, language errors, and most importantly the different damage and loss definitions used across the EU, will be detailed and simplified for the understanding of the general public such as the differences between insurance, private sector and government estimates.</p> <p>Using lessons learned from the last 10 years of science communication of CATDAT to the world, it is hoped that by undertaking such a communication effort, that errors in the media and scientific publications will be reduced. In addition, we hope that disaster damages and losses will be understood better including their trends; and that indeed governments, dataviz scientists and journalists as well as researchers will be able to benefit from the knowledge including in the MYRIAD-EU project on multi-hazard risk scenarios for Europe.</p> </div> </div>
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