Technical decision-makings (TDMs) are a vital part of the decision-makings in construction megaprojects, facing high risks brought by technical complexity, dynamic environment, and subject cognition. Identifying technical decision-making risks (TDMRs) and exploring their interactions are important in megaproject management. Due to the high complexity of TDMs in megaprojects, TDMRs are complex and diverse. However, there is a lack of research on exploring the systematic TDMRs in megaprojects. To address this gap in knowledge, this paper aims to better understand the dynamic complexity of TDMRs in megaprojects by identifying the risks and exploring their interactions from a dynamic and systematic perspective. Grounded theory (GT) and system dynamics (SD) were adopted for this research. First, the GT was used to identify TDMRs in megaprojects and create a conceptual model depicting the relationships among TDMRs. Then, an SD model characterizing the causal structure of the TDMRs system in megaprojects is developed in both qualitative and quantitative manners. The developed model involves interrelationships among environmental risks, decision-making process risks, and decision-making execution process risks. After the validation of the model, a model simulation is conducted to predict the dynamic evolution process of the TDMRs. As a result, a multilayer risk list consisting of 42 index layer risk indicators, 13 field layer risk indicators, and 3 standard layer risk indicators is identified. The SD modeling results show that these multilevel TDMRs interact dynamically and have intricate influences on the total risk level of TDMs in megaprojects. The results of this study could be useful for decision-makers to identify and mitigate TDMRs in megaprojects.
This article made a system dynamics flow diagram (SD flow diagram) to describe the green railway engineering (GRE) system, which provides a theoretical basis for discussing the source and change process of the green degree of railway engineering(GDR) and also provides a practical basis for accurate policy implementation and evaluation promotion of GRE management. Based on the definition of GDR and using “input-output” relationship to analyze system structure of GRE, set two green goals of environmental and resource cost decreases as the clue, deconstructed practice process based on the principle of construction to form GRE system dynamic flow diagram, which aims to reveal the key influencing factors and promotion path of GDR. The results of the research show that (1) the green schemes set the foundation of GDR, including 3 schemes of green planning, green design, green construction, and determine the expected control values (VE) of 4 status, namely ecological damage degree, environmental pollution degree, land occupation degree, and resources consume degree. (2) The deviation of expected control values (VE) and actual control values (VA) from 4 status is the premise of whether the GDR needs to be optimized or improved, and 2 practice achievements of green knowledge innovation and green culture creation provided different promotion paths for GDR. (3) According to the SD flow diagram constructed by research, the 3 schemes are influenced by regional ecological carrying capacity, social material resource reserve, green knowledge reserve, green talent reserve , reasonable goals setting, strengthening preliminary research, making full use of resources, deepening the connection of procedures, and so on are conducive to build a foundation for GDR. (4) The 4 status are directly controlled by seven rate variables, which promote the dynamic optimization of GDR by technology, equipment, institution management, and behavior management. The SD flow diagram of GRE provides 2 contributions. The first provides an analytical basis for the study of the promotion strategy of GDR, and the second provides a model basis for further quantitative study of GDR.
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