Background: The World Health Organization declared the ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on February 1, 2016. ZIKV disease in humans is characterized by a “dengue-like” syndrome including febrile illness and rash. However, ZIKV infection in early pregnancy has been associated with severe birth defects, including microcephaly and other developmental issues. Mechanistic models of disease transmission can be used to forecast trajectories and likely disease burden but are currently hampered by substantial uncertainty on the epidemiology of the disease (e.g., the role of asymptomatic transmission, generation interval, incubation period, and key drivers). When insight is limited, phenomenological models provide a starting point for estimation of key transmission parameters, such as the reproduction number, and forecasts of epidemic impact.Methods: We obtained daily counts of suspected Zika cases by date of symptoms onset from the Secretary of Health of Antioquia, Colombia during January-April 2016. We calibrated the generalized Richards model, a phenomenological model that accommodates a variety of early exponential and sub-exponential growth kinetics, against the early epidemic trajectory and generated predictions of epidemic size. The reproduction number was estimated by applying the renewal equation to incident cases simulated from the fitted generalized-growth model and assuming gamma or exponentially-distributed generation intervals derived from the literature. We estimated the reproduction number for an increasing duration of the epidemic growth phase.Results: The reproduction number rapidly declined from 10.3 (95% CI: 8.3, 12.4) in the first disease generation to 2.2 (95% CI: 1.9, 2.8) in the second disease generation, assuming a gamma-distributed generation interval with the mean of 14 days and standard deviation of 2 days. The generalized-Richards model outperformed the logistic growth model and provided forecasts within 22% of the actual epidemic size based on an assessment 30 days into the epidemic, with the epidemic peaking on day 36.Conclusion: Phenomenological models represent promising tools to generate early forecasts of epidemic impact particularly in the context of substantial uncertainty in epidemiological parameters. Our findings underscore the need to treat the reproduction number as a dynamic quantity even during the early growth phase, and emphasize the sensitivity of reproduction number estimates to assumptions on the generation interval distribution.

Purpose The purpose of this study is to theoretically link design thinking with behavioural strategy, using empirical results that relate three cognitive dimensions: design thinking personality traits, cognitive passive resistance and linear thinking, and, consequently, determine: if there is a negative relationship between design thinking traits and cognitive passive resistance and if this relationship is mediated by linear thinking. Design/methodology/approach This study used a quantitative methodology of covariance-based structural equation modelling. The data were collected from a three-scale, self-completed questionnaire, which was constructed using the existing modelling of the academic literature. The questionnaire was validated by confirmatory factor analysis and applied to a sample of 342 professional engineering and business graduates in Colombia. Findings The results of the structural equation modelling demonstrate a negative relationship between design thinking traits and cognitive passive resistance, and this relationship is mediated by linear thinking. These findings link design thinking and behavioural strategy and build new foundations for future studies, providing further theoretical support to the academic literature’s discussion of the relationship between design thinking and theories of managerial practices and innovation management. Research limitations/implications The main limitation of this study is the subjectivity of the answers because of potential bias from the respondents in completing the questionnaire. Another limitation is that the research was conducted only in the context of Colombia, so it is recommended that other studies be carried to generalise the results. This study has several theoretical implications. This study contributes to existing research on design thinking, evidencing a promising field of study to support it theoretically, such as the behavioural strategy. This study also contributes to the literature on innovation management deepening into a field of study that has received less attention in the literature, such as passive cognitive resistance to innovation. Likewise, this study presents a theoretical contribution to the dual process of cognition, proposing a new dimension to the construction of the multidimensional concept of nonlinear thinking. This study also contributes to the behavioural strategy field, evidencing a growing area of application in strategic management, such as design thinking. Finally, this research also proposes the development of a new research avenue about the concept of knowledge hiding as a possible source of innovation resistance. Practical implications This research also has implications for business and engineering education and practice. This study’s results suggest that before implementing an organisational initiative such as design thinking, which seeks to change people's behaviour, it is necessary to approach it as a cognitive process and develop strategies to mitigate passive cognitive resistance to change. This research’s results also present implications for business and engineering education, evidencing the need to include other perspectives of thinking that allow non-designers to develop creative thinking. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first quantitative study on design thinking as a business management concept using linear thinking of non-designers to relate design thinking traits with cognitive passive resistance. This research provides theoretical and empirical support for framing design thinking within the field of behavioural strategy.

El propósito del presente artículo es contextualizar al lector sobre la importancia de la estrategia conductual como campo emergente de la investigación en gestión empresarial, particularmente desde la denominada escuela reduccionista, que se orienta hacia el estudio de procesos de cognición individual soportada en conceptos como racionalidad limitada, la teoría prospectiva, las heurísticas y sesgos cognitivos, y el proceso dual de cognición; para de esta forma comprender el proceso de toma de decisiones que puede presentarse por diferentes actores en la empresa, no solo en situaciones de incertidumbre como las que se han vivido a raíz de la pandemia por COVID-19, sino en situaciones generales que implican la toma de decisiones que afectan diferentes aspectos del amplio espectro de la gestión empresarial.