ResumenEl objetivo de este trabajo es determinar el efecto directo que sobre las prestaciones por jubilación tiene la reforma del sistema público español de pensiones llevada a cabo recientemente. Aplicando Modelos de Micro Simulación a una muestra de 5.025 vidas laborales de individuos que se jubilaron en 2011, se concluye que la reforma tiene una incidencia media negativa en las dos variables analizadas: la pensión inicial y la edad de jubilación. No obstante, cuando se analiza la incidencia por deciles, se observan en ambas variables efectos de distinta magnitud y signo, así como una elevada correlación entre dichos efectos.Palabras clave: edad de jubilación, modelos de micro simulación, pensión inicial, reforma paramétrica, sistema público de pensiones español. Clasificación JEL: H55, I38, J14, J26 Spadaro, A. (Ed.) (2007), Microsimulation as a tool for the evaluation of public policies: Methods and Applications, Fundación BBVA, Bilbao.
AbstractIn this paper we compute the direct effect of the recent reform of the Spanish public pension system on pension benefits. Applying Micro Simulation Models to a sample of 5,025 working lives of individuals retired in 2011, we conclude that the reform has in average a negative incidence in the two variables analyzed: the initial pension and the retirement age. However, when the incidence is analyzed by deciles, effects of different magnitude and sign are observed in both variables, as well as a high correlation between these effects.
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