A methodology to estimate kinetic parameters using the Monte Carlo algorithm and sensitivity analysis is described. The approach is applied to the experimental data reported in the literature for slurry-phase hydrocracking of heavy oil with ionic liquids. All experiments were carried out in a batch reactor at a reaction temperature of 430 °C, H 2 pressure of 12.3 MPa, and reaction times of 0.5−6 h. It is demonstrated that the reported values of kinetic parameters can be optimized so that the average absolute error is substantially reduced from 21.73 to 7.93%. Simulations with the Monte Carlo algorithm with various initial values of parameters help find the best initial guess for further optimization of parameters. The prediction of product yields was improved using the average absolute error as objective function since it was distributed equally for all products, being coke the lump with greater error reduction (from 57.39 to 7.60%). The sensitivity and statistical analyses performed on the optimized reaction rate coefficients confirmed that the obtained results are the optimal values that minimize the error between calculated and experimental data. The lowest value of average absolute error (7.93%) determined by sensitivity analysis was found for the optimized values; moreover, the slope and intercept of the parity plot are almost 1 and 0, respectively.
Due to the current worldwide environmental problems caused by high emissions of polluting gases such as CO, NO x , and SO x , resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels, many organizations and governments have established standards aimed at producing cleaner and more environmentally friendly fuels. These standards focus on eliminating hazardous substances, particularly the sulfur compounds in diesel, as they are among the most harmful organic compounds to both human health and the environment. Hydrotreating is the main refinery process used to produce ultralow sulfur diesel. For proper modeling and simulation of this process, it is mandatory to develop adequate kinetic models that include all the reactions taking place during the hydrotreating of gas oil, as well as the removal of the most refractory compounds present in the chemical composition of diesel, such as 4-MDBT and 4,6-DMDBT. This work reports an exhaustive discussion of the kinetic models of hydrotreating reactions for the production of ultralow sulfur diesel reported so far in the literature. The main topics include the reaction systems, type of catalysts, and operating conditions. A comparison of the reported kinetic parameters was also carried out. Finally, a set of kinetic models to be considered for the simulation of the hydrotreating process to produce ultralow sulfur diesel is proposed.
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