ResumenEl artículo analiza los determinantes de la probabilidad de cerrar una firma nueva en el mercado antes de que alcance sus primeros cinco años de actividades. Se estudian las condiciones macroeconómicas y microeconómicas que experimentaron estas empresas en Bogotá durante su primer lustro. El estudio revela que hay indicios para afirmar que el tamaño óptimo de entrada es el de pequeña y mediana empresa (PYMEs). Entre los principales hallazgos de la investigación están, en primer lugar, que las empresas más proclives a la quiebra prematura son las microempresas, en segundo lugar, para algunas empresas el endeudamiento moderado puede ser útil para apalancarse, pero el alto endeudamiento, finalmente, se verificó que, tanto el sector económico, como la localidad en la que abre sus puertas la nueva empresa, son determinantes en su probabilidad de cerrar antes de los primeros cinco años. Palabras clave: Supervivencia de empresas, modelos probit, nuevas empresas, creación de empresas star ups.
PROBABILITY DETERMINANTS OF NEW ENTERPRISES CLOSURE IN BOGOTÁ AbstractThis article analyzes the determinants of probability of closing a new firm in the market before completing five years of operation. Macroeconomic and microeconomic conditions which were experienced by those firms in Bogotá were studied. The study reveals that it can be affirmed that the optimum size of a firm to enter into the market is small and medium enterprise (SME). Main findings are, in the first place, that the enterprises most likely to premature bankrupt are micro enterprises, in second place, for some enterprises;moderate indebtedness can be useful for leverage, and finally, high indebtedness is determinant for an enterprise closure before completing its fifth year of operation.
Purpose
Entrepreneurial intention is one of the main predictors of venture creation. However, the approaches used to analyze the entrepreneurial intention and venture creation are mostly linear approaches, leaving aside the fact that new ventures arise in a context characterized by fluctuations and instability, especially in emerging economies where economic and social factors are highly variables. Nevertheless, a dynamic approach could best represent its behavior. This study aims to propose an alternative approach and a starting point for more complex dynamic models in the entrepreneurship process that surpass the limitation of the current linear methodologies and allow gathering isolated studies' contributions.
Design/methodology/approach
This study proposes a method to shed light on the processes related to the venture creation process and entrepreneurial intention by designing a system dynamics simulation model.
Findings
The results reveal that the delayed effect of expectations produces a growing tendency in project creation, venture establishment and venture creation. Likewise, the entrepreneurial intention is not a static variable; it changes by the system’s dynamics and disturbs the venture creation process, which produces an increase in oscillations in the model and, therefore, reduces the project’s growth and venture creation.
Research limitations/implications
This model is a generic approach for the study of venture creation and entrepreneurial intention. The model can analyze entrepreneurial intention and venture creation in different contexts, adjusting the different model parameters. The authors run a sensitivity analysis to encompass deviation from the parameter established and the uncertainty about them. However, the empirical data used for the model’s testing, in this case, correspond to an approximation to the behavior of venture creation in Colombia, which is considered an emerging economy. The model proposed does not pretend to incorporate all the variables and phenomena about entrepreneurship.
Originality/value
The approach suggested in this work aims to conceptualize venture creation as a complex process that emerges from the occurrence and combination of simpler states, instead of activities that represent building blocks. In addition, the term “entrepreneurial process” is defined as a composite of different perspectives that use a series of multidisciplinary theories to address the topic.
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