We study the problem of obtaining an expected utility representation for a potentially incomplete preference relation over lotteries by means of a set of von Neumann-Morgenstern utility functions. It is shown that, when the prize space is a compact metric space, a preference relation admits such a multi-utility representation provided that it satisfies the standard axioms of expected utility theory. Moreover, the representing set of utilities is unique in a welldefined sense. r
We conduct two experiements of the claim that people are overcon…dent. We develop new tests of overplacement which are based on a formal Bayesian model. Our two experiments, on easy quizzes, …nd overplacement. More precisely, we …nd apparently overcon…dent data that cannot be accounted for by a rational population of expected utility maximizers with a good understanding of the nature of the quizzes they took.
We introduce a procedural model of risky choice in which an individual is endowed with a core preference relation that may be highly incomplete. She can, however, derive further rankings of alternatives from her core preferences by means of a procedure based on the independence axiom. We find that the preferences that are generated from an initial set of rankings according to this procedure can be represented by means of a set of von Neumann-Morgenstern utility functions, thereby allowing for incompleteness of preference relations. The proposed theory also yields new characterizations of the stochastic dominance orderings.
We conduct two experiements of the claim that people are overcon…dent. We develop new tests of overplacement which are based on a formal Bayesian model. Our two experiments, on easy quizzes, …nd overplacement. More precisely, we …nd apparently overcon…dent data that cannot be accounted for by a rational population of expected utility maximizers with a good understanding of the nature of the quizzes they took.
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