El objetivo del presente trabajo es determinar empíricamente las principales variables macroeconómicas que influyen en los movimientos de la balanza comercial dentro de la economía mexicana para el período 2000.I-2014.II, mediante datos trimestrales. A través de la metodología de vectores de corrección de error (VEC), encontramos que una depreciación del tipo de cambio real, así como un aumento en la actividad económica del país son factores que presionan hacia un superávit en la balanza comercial de México. Mientras que un incremento en la producción industrial de Estados Unidos tiene un efecto inverso.
The objective of the current document is to analyze the macroeconomic determinants of real wages in Mexico, an economy with a high degree of integration with the US, under the Hypotheses of Rational Expectations, through the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). We estimated an ad hoc wage-setting equation, to the Mexican economy. The outcomes validate the existence of a Phillips curve and show that the unemployment is the most important variable in determining the real salary rates. However, productivity keeps a close relation with wages, while the inflation expectations play a secondary role in determining them.
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