Wildfires are a frequent event in Cantabria, but their seasonality does not match the typical warm season maximum generalized in most of the Iberian Peninsula. They occur at the end of the winter and the beginning of the spring (January to March), being mostly anthropogenically triggered, in conjunction with "Suradas", a windstorm which combines high winds and low humidity. In this contribution temporal trends of several climatic variables from meteorological observatories located in Cantabria and nearby regions are analyzed since 1961 during the highest risk period in order to assess to what extent the occurrence of wildfires may be linked to the recent climatic variability. Our results show that the regional climate has become warmer and drier, due to the combined effects of increases in temperatures and the decrease in relative humidity and precipitation, variables that are likely to play an important role in drought and fire proneness. However, the exception is the frequency of "Suradas", which have reduced. Those regional climatic trends are strongly linked to the recent evolution of atmospheric circulation at regional and hemispheric scale. The higher frequency of anticyclonic cells over the Iberian Peninsula, and conversely, the reduction of the number of Atlantic baroclinic disturbances are consistent with the temporal evolution of the North Atlantic Oscillation.
Abstract. This paper assesses the evolution of storminess along the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula through the calculation of extreme (1%) Total Water Levels (eTWL) on both observed (tide gauge and buoy data) and hindcasted (SIMAR-44) data. Those events were first identified and then characterized in terms of oceanographic parameters and atmospheric circulation features. Additionally, an analysis of the long-term trends in both types of data was performed. Most of the events correspond to a rough wave climate and moderate storm surges, linked to extratropical disturbances following a northern track. While local atmospheric conditions seem to be evolving towards lesser storminess, their impact has been balanced by the favorable exposure of the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula to the increasing frequency and strength of distant disturbances crossing the North Atlantic. This evolution is also correctly reproduced by the simulated long-term evolution of the forcing component (meteorological sea level residuals and wave run up) of the Total Water Level values calculated from the SIMAR 44 database, since sea level residuals have been experiencing a reduction while waves are arriving with longer periods. Finally, the addition of the rate of relative sea level trend to the temporal evolution of the atmospheric forcing component of the Total Water Level values is enough to simulate more frequent and persistent eTWL.
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