Purpose The traditional one-stage constant growth formula has two main underlying assumptions: a company will be able to maintain its competitive advantage for completed investments in perpetuity, and each year in the future, it will be able to generate new investment opportunities with the same competitive advantage, which will also remain in perpetuity. The purpose of this paper is to develop a model that limits the duration of the competitive advantage. Design/methodology/approach A new model is developed, and it is used to value a public company. Findings In this study, the author introduces an alternative formula considering the duration of the competitive advantage, imposing a restriction on the fact that extraordinary returns cannot be sustained forever, and also separates the part of the value explained by the current investments from the portion of value created by future investments. Originality/value The traditional one-stage constant growth model used to determine the continuing value of a company has limitations regarding the duration of the competitive advantage. The developed formula corrects the problem limiting the time extraordinary returns will remain over time.

The purpose of this article was to develop a new indicator to estimate the aggregate long-term expected return on stocks. There is not a widely used method to model directly the aggregated expected return of the stock market. Most current methods use indirect approaches. We developed a new indicator that does not need an econometric model to generate expected returns and provides an estimate of the long-term expected returns. The proposed methodology can be used to develop an indicator of future returns of the stock market similar to the yield-to-maturity used for bonds. We used a restricted one-stage constant-growth model - a variant of the residual income model (RIM) - whose main input is the duration of companies’ competitive advantage and cyclical adjusted real return on invested capital (ROIC) with a 10-year average. We used a new methodology to develop an indicator of the long-term expected return on the equity market at the aggregate level, considering the duration of the competitive advantage of companies. Our results showed a strong correlation between the estimated implied return on equity (IRE) of current stock prices and realized returns of the 10-year real total return of the index.