Emission generated by the international merchant fleet has been suggested to represent a significant contribution to the global anthropogenic emissions. To analyze the impacts of these emissions, we present detailed model studies of the changes in atmospheric composition of pollutants and greenhouse compounds due to emissions from cargo and passenger ships in international trade. Global emission inventories of NOx, SO2, CO, CO2, and volatile organic compounds (VOC) are developed by a bottom‐up approach combining ship‐type specific engine emission modeling, oil cargo VOC vapor modeling, alternative global distribution methods, and ship operation data. Calculated bunker fuel consumption is found in agreement with international sales statistics. The Automated Mutual‐assistance Vessel Rescue system (AMVER) data set is found to best reflect the distributions of cargo ships in international trade. A method based on the relative reporting frequency weighted by the ship size for each vessel type is recommended. We have exploited this modeled ship emissions inventory to estimate perturbations of the global distribution of ozone, methane, sulfate, and nitrogen compounds using a global 3‐D chemical transport model with interactive ozone and sulfate chemistry. Ozone perturbations are highly nonlinear, being most efficient in regions of low background pollution. Different data sets (e.g., AMVER, The Comprehensive Ocean‐Atmosphere Data Set (COADS)) lead to highly different regional perturbations. A maximum ozone perturbation of approximately 12 ppbv is obtained in the North Atlantic and in the North Pacific during summer months. Global average sulfate loading increases with 2.9%, while the increase is significantly larger over parts of western Europe (up to 8%). In contrast to the AMVER data, the COADS data give particularly large enhancements over the North Atlantic. Ship emissions reduce methane lifetime by approximately 5%. CO2 and O3 give positive radiative forcing (RF), and CH4 and sulfate give negative forcing. The total RF is small (0.01–0.02 W/m2) and connected with large uncertainties. Increase in acidification is 3–10% in certain coastal areas. The approach presented here is clearly useful for characterizing the present impact of ship emission and will be valuable for assessing the potential effect of various emission‐control options.

Abstract.Two simple and computationally e•cient models for simulating stratospheric ozone in three-dimensional global transport models are presented. The first, linearizod ozone (or Linoz), is a first-order Taylor found to be in good agreement with observations. We conclude that either approach may be adequate for a CTM focusing on tropospheric chemistry but that Linoz can also be used for calculating ozone fields interactively with the stratosphcric circulation in a GCM. A future version of Linoz will allow for evolving background concentrations of key source gases, such as CH4 and N20, and thus be applicable for long-term climate simulations.

[1] A sulfur cycle chemistry scheme with dimethyl sulfide (DMS), SO 2 , sulfate, H 2 S, and methanesulfonic acid (MSA) is included in the OsloCTM2 model, and concentrations of sulfur are calculated interactively with the oxidant chemistry. This allows more consistent estimates of aqueous phase oxidation of SO 2 to sulfate by O 3 , H 2 O 2 , and HO 2 NO 2 . The year 1996 is chosen as the standard, and a model run with 1996 meteorology and emissions is compared with 1996 observations. The results agree well with observations overall, although the model tends to overestimate SO 2 and underestimate sulfate in Northern Hemisphere winter owing to an oxidation limitation. A global budget for 1996 quantifying the various processes is investigated. Our model results give a global lifetime (global burden) of 1 day (0.25 Tg(S)) and 3.8 days (0.5 3 Tg(S)) for SO 2 and sulfate. Differences between the Southern Hemisphere, characterized by natural emissions and by loss of SO 2 by O 3 and H 2 O 2 oxidation, and the Northern Hemisphere, characterized by anthropogenic emissions and by large loss by dry deposition, are revealed. Significant changes in sulfur emissions have occurred over the last decades with decrease in the Unites States and Europe and increase in Southeast Asia. U.S., European, and Chinese SO 2 emissions have changed by À17.6%, À47.5%, and +93%, respectively. To study the impact of emission changes on the atmospheric composition, we have calculated distributions using the Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA) 1985 inventory. The changes in sulfur emissions have significant changes on the sulfur concentrations and also some effect upon the oxidants. Increased emissions of NO x and hydrocarbons in China enhance O 3 , but increased sulfur inhibit the increase. The SO 2 oxidation by OH, which can lead to formation of new sulfate particles, is given special attention. The model run using GEIA 1985 anthropogenic emission inventory is compared with other model studies.

[1] Ozone is an air quality problem today for much of the world's population. Regions can exceed the ozone air quality standards (AQS) through a combination of local emissions, meteorology favoring pollution episodes, and the clean-air baseline levels of ozone upon which pollution builds. The IPCC 2001 assessment studied a range of global emission scenarios and found that all but one projects increases in global tropospheric ozone during the 21st century. By 2030, near-surface increases over much of the northern hemisphere are estimated to be about 5 ppb (+2 to +7 ppb over the range of scenarios). By 2100 the two more extreme scenarios project baseline ozone increases of >20 ppb, while the other four scenarios give changes of À4 to +10 ppb. Even modest increases in the background abundance of tropospheric ozone might defeat current AQS strategies. The larger increases, however, would gravely threaten both urban and rural air quality over most of the northern hemisphere.

[1] The Oslo chemical transport model (Oslo CTM2) is driven by meteorological data to model mineral dust during the Saharan Dust Experiment (SHADE) campaign in September 2000. Model calculations of the optical properties and radiative transfer codes are used to assess the direct radiative impact in the solar and terrestrial regions of the spectrum. The model calculations are compared to a wide range of measurements (satellite, ground-based, and aircraft) during the campaign. The model reproduces the main features during the SHADE campaign, including a large mineral dust storm. The optical properties and the vertical profiles are in reasonable agreement with the measurements. There is a very good agreement between the modeled radiative impact and observations. The strongest local solar radiative impact we model is around À115 Wm À2 . On a global scale the radiative effect of mineral dust from Sahara exerts a significant negative net radiative effect.