Despite considerable effort for surveillance of wild birds for avian influenza viruses (AIVs), empirical investigations of ecological drivers of AIV prevalence in wild birds are still scarce. Here we used a continental-scale dataset, collected in tropical wetlands of 15 African countries, to test the relative roles of a range of ecological factors on patterns of AIV prevalence in wildfowl. Seasonal and geographical variations in prevalence were positively related to the local density of the wildfowl community and to the wintering period of Eurasian migratory birds in Africa. The predominant influence of wildfowl density with no influence of climatic conditions suggests, in contrast to temperate regions, a predominant role for inter-individual transmission rather than transmission via long-lived virus persisting in the environment. Higher prevalences were found in Anas species than in non-Anas species even when we account for differences in their foraging behaviour (primarily dabbling or not) or their geographical origin (Eurasian or Afro-tropical), suggesting the existence of intrinsic differences between wildfowl taxonomic groups in receptivity to infection. Birds were found infected as often in oropharyngeal as in cloacal samples, but rarely for both types of sample concurrently, indicating that both respiratory and digestive tracts may be important for AIV replication.

Heterogeneity in the transmission rates of pathogens across hosts or environments may produce disease hotspots, which are defined as specific sites, times or species associations in which the infection rate is consistently elevated. Hotspots for avian influenza virus (AIV) in wild birds are largely unstudied and poorly understood. A striking feature is the existence of a unique but consistent AIV hotspot in shorebirds (Charadriiformes) associated with a single species at a specific location and time (ruddy turnstone Arenaria interpres at Delaware Bay, USA, in May). This unique case, though a valuable reference, limits our capacity to explore and understand the general properties of AIV hotspots in shorebirds. Unfortunately, relatively few shorebirds have been sampled outside Delaware Bay and they belong to only a few shorebird families; there also has been a lack of consistent oropharyngeal sampling as a complement to cloacal sampling. In this study we looked for AIV hotspots associated with other shorebird species and/or with some of the larger congregation sites of shorebirds in the old world. We assembled and analysed a regionally extensive dataset of AIV prevalence from 69 shorebird species sampled in 25 countries across Africa and Western Eurasia. Despite this diverse and extensive coverage we did not detect any new shorebird AIV hotspots. Neither large shorebird congregation sites nor the ruddy turnstone were consistently associated with AIV hotspots. We did, however, find a low but widespread circulation of AIV in shorebirds that contrast with the absence of AIV previously reported in shorebirds in Europe. A very high AIV antibody prevalence coupled to a low infection rate was found in both first-year and adult birds of two migratory sandpiper species, suggesting the potential existence of an AIV hotspot along their migratory flyway that is yet to be discovered.

Waterfowl were counted and sampled in a Zimbabwean wetland over 24 months.LPAI strains were detected during 20 consecutive months, providing the first evidence of regional yearly persistence of LPAI. We discuss the role of Afro-tropical ducks in viral maintenance and transmission and attempt to explain the observed patterns.

The spatial and temporal structures of waterbird communities are dynamic and complex with many driving factors. We used long-term waterbird census data at two lakes in Zimbabwe to explore the ecological and anthropogenic drivers of waterbird community composition and abundance. Ecological drivers predicted to influence waterbird communities include rainfall quantity and distribution, waterbird movement, breeding and moulting; anthropogenic drivers include activities such as fishing and agriculture. Results suggest that seasonal variations in resource availability influenced the waterbird community composition and abundance, as did movements at local, regional, and intercontinental scales. Bird numbers in the two perennial lakes experienced large changes in structure during two droughts. We also used the study as a baseline for considering the risk of spread of avian influenza virus (AIV) spread in waterbird communities in Zimbabwean lakes, which is likely to be higher in dry seasons and during drought years when waterbird abundance is high. Our study emphasises the importance of long-term ecological data in understanding crucial aspects of biodiversity conservation as well as pathogen dynamics in wild waterbird communities, with important management implications.

SUMMARYNewcastle disease (ND) is one of the most important poultry diseases worldwide and can lead to annual losses of up to 80% of backyard chickens in Africa. All bird species are considered susceptible to ND virus (NDV) infection but little is known about the role that wild birds play in the epidemiology of the virus. We present a long-term monitoring of 9000 wild birds in four African countries. Overall, 3·06% of the birds were PCR-positive for NDV infection, with prevalence ranging from 0% to 10% depending on the season, the site and the species considered. Our study shows that ND is circulating continuously and homogeneously in a large range of wild bird species. Several genotypes of NDV circulate concurrently in different species and are phylogenetically closely related to strains circulating in local domestic poultry, suggesting that wild birds may play several roles in the epidemiology of different NDV strains in Africa. We recommend that any strategic plan aiming at controlling ND in Africa should take into account the potential role of the local wild bird community in the transmission of the disease.