BACKGROUND: Long-term efficacy of opioids for noncancer pain is unproven, but risks argue for cautious prescribing. Few data suggest how long or how much opioid can be prescribed for opioid-naïve patients without inadvertently promoting long-term use. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between initial opioid prescribing patterns and likelihood of long-term use among opioid-naïve patients. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study; data from Oregon resident prescriptions linked to death certificates and hospital discharges. PARTICIPANTS: Patients filling opioid prescriptions between October 1, 2012, and September 30, 2013, with no opioid fills for the previous 365 days. Subgroup analyses examined patients under age 45 who did not die in the follow-up year, excluding most cancer or palliative care patients. MAIN MEASURES: Exposure: Numbers of prescription fills and cumulative morphine milligram equivalents (MMEs) dispensed during 30 days following opioid initiation (Binitiation month^). Outcome: Proportion of patients with six or more opioid fills during the subsequent year (Blong-term users^). KEY RESULTS: There were 536,767 opioid-naïve patients who filled an opioid prescription. Of these, 26,785 (5.0 %) became long-term users. Numbers of fills and cumulative MMEs during the initiation month were associated with long-term use. Among patients under age 45 using short-acting opioids who did not die in the follow-up year, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) for long-term use among those receiving two fills versus one was 2.25 (95 % CI: 2.17, 2.33). Compared to those who received < 120 total MMEs, those who received between 400 and 799 had an OR of 2.96 (95 % CI: 2.81, 3.11). Patients initiating with long-acting opioids had a higher risk of long-term use than those initiating with short-acting drugs.CONCLUSIONS: Early opioid prescribing patterns are associated with long-term use. While patient characteristics are important, clinicians have greater control over initial prescribing. Our findings may help minimize the risk of inadvertently initiating long-term opioid use.

Lumbar fusion surgery is usually prompted by chronic back pain, and many patients receive long-term preoperative opioid analgesics. Many expect surgery to eliminate the need for opioids. We sought to determine what fraction of long-term preoperative opioid users discontinue or reduce dosage postoperatively; what fraction of patients with little preoperative use initiate long-term use; and what predicts long-term postoperative use. This retrospective cohort study included 2491 adults undergoing lumbar fusion surgery for degenerative conditions, using Oregon's prescription drug monitoring program to quantify opioid use before and after hospitalization. We defined long-term postoperative use as ≥4 prescriptions filled in the 7 months after hospitalization, with at least 3 occurring >30 days after hospitalization. Overall, 1045 patients received long-term opioids preoperatively, and 1094 postoperatively. Among long-term preoperative users, 77.1% continued long-term postoperative use, and 13.8% had episodic use. Only 9.1% discontinued or had short-term postoperative use. Among preoperative users, 34.4% received a lower dose postoperatively, but 44.8% received a higher long-term dose. Among patients with no preoperative opioids, 12.8% became long-term users. In multivariable models, the strongest predictor of long-term postoperative use was cumulative preoperative opioid dose (odds ratio of 15.47 [95% confidence interval 8.53-28.06] in the highest quartile). Cumulative dose and number of opioid prescribers in the 30-day postoperative period were also associated with long-term use. Thus, lumbar fusion surgery infrequently eliminated long-term opioid use. Opioid-naive patients had a substantial risk of initiating long-term use. Patients should have realistic expectations regarding opioid use after lumbar fusion surgery.

During high-risk out-of-hospital care of pediatric patients, safety events are common, potentially severe, and largely preventable. Infants and those requiring resuscitation are important areas of focus to reduce out-of-hospital pediatric patient safety events.

Factors other than PDMP use may have had greater influence on prescribing trends. Refinements in the PDMP program and related policies may be necessary to increase PDMP effects.

Background Rates of nonmedical exemptions to kindergarten-entry immunization requirements have increased over the past 2 decades, especially in states that permit philosophical exemptions and/or have easier administrative policies for obtaining nonmedical exemptions. We evaluated trends in school personal belief exemption rates over the period 1994–2009 in California, and associated school and community characteristics. Methods We used data on personal belief exemptions from 6392 public and private elementary schools from the California Department of Public Health, as well as census tract and school demographic data. Generalized estimating equations were used to model annual mean increases in personal belief exemption rates, and to identify school and community characteristics associated with personal belief exemption rates. Results Over the study period, the average school personal belief exemption rate increased from 0.6% in 1994 to 2.3% in 2009, an average of 9.2% (95% CI: 8.8–9.6%) per year. The average personal belief exemption rate among private schools over the entire study period was 1.77 (95% CI: 1.55–2.01) times that among public schools. The annual rate of increase was slightly higher among private schools (10.1%, 95% CI: 9.1–11.1%) than among public schools (8.8%, 95% CI: 8.4–9.2%). Schools located within census tracts classified as rural had 1.66 (95% CI: 1.26–2.08) times higher personal belief exemption rates than schools located within urban census tracts. Exemption rates were also associated with race, population density, education, and income. Conclusions This study confirms concerns about increasing rates of nonmedical exemptions to kindergarten vaccine requirements within the state of California, using data collected over a 16-year period.