Identifying the overlap of commercial fishing grounds and seabird habitat can suggest areas of high bycatch risk and inform management and mitigation measures. We used Bayesian state space modeling to describe the movements of 10 satellite-tagged Great Shearwaters and a bivariate kernel density technique to investigate spatial overlap with commercial fishing effort to predict areas of high bycatch in the Gulf of Maine. We then used contemporaneous fishery observer data to test the validity of our predictions, highlighting an area constituting 1% of the Gulf of Maine as having the highest bycatch risk that accounted for 50% of observed takes. Fishery observer data also provided insights into characteristics of the seabird-fishery interactions. Our results indicate that a relatively small number of satellite-tagged seabirds, when combined with fishery-dependent data, can lead to identifying high-bycatch areas, particular fishing practices that might increase risk, and fishing communities that could be targeted for education/mitigation.
It is well established that sea turtles are vulnerable to atmospheric and oceanographic shifts associated with climate change. However, few studies have formally projected how their seasonal marine habitat may shift in response to warming ocean temperatures. Here we used a high-resolution global climate model and a large satellite tagging dataset to project changes in the future distribution of suitable thermal habitat for loggerheads along the northeastern continental shelf of the United States. Between 2009 and 2018, we deployed 196 satellite tags on loggerheads within the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) of the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf region, a seasonal foraging area. Tag location data combined with depth and remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST) were used to characterize the species’ current thermal range in the MAB. The best-fitting model indicated that the habitat envelope for tagged loggerheads consisted of SST ranging from 11.0° to 29.7 °C and depths between 0 and 105.0 m. The calculated core bathythermal range consisted of SSTs between 15.0° and 28.0 °C and depths between 8.0 and 92.0 m, with the highest probability of presence occurred in regions with SST between 17.7° and 25.3 °C and at depths between 26.1 and 74.2 m. This model was then forced by a high-resolution global climate model under a doubling of atmospheric CO2 to project loggerhead probability of presence over the next 80 years. Our results suggest that loggerhead thermal habitat and seasonal duration will likely increase in northern regions of the NW Atlantic shelf. This change in spatiotemporal range for sea turtles in a region of high anthropogenic use may prompt adjustments to the localized protected species conservation measures.
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