Climate change is posing new challenges to crop-related concerns, including food insecurity, supply stability, and economic planning. Accurately predicting crop yields is crucial for addressing these challenges. However, this prediction task is exceptionally complicated since crop yields depend on numerous factors such as weather, land surface, and soil quality, as well as their interactions. In recent years, machine learning models have been successfully applied in this domain. However, these models either restrict their tasks to a relatively small region, or only study over a single or few years, which makes them hard to generalize spatially and temporally. In this paper, we introduce a novel graph-based recurrent neural network for crop yield prediction, to incorporate both geographical and temporal knowledge in the model, and further boost predictive power. Our method is trained, validated, and tested on over 2000 counties from 41 states in the US mainland, covering years from 1981 to 2019. As far as we know, this is the first machine learning method that embeds geographical knowledge in crop yield prediction and predicts crop yields at the county level nationwide. We also laid a solid foundation by comparing our model on a nationwide scale with other well-known baseline methods, including linear models, tree-based models, and deep learning methods. Experiments show that our proposed method consistently outperforms the existing state-of-the-art methods on various metrics, validating the effectiveness of geospatial and temporal information.

Monitoring vegetation productivity at extremely fine resolutions is valuable for real-world agricultural applications, such as detecting crop stress and providing early warning of food insecurity. Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF) provides a promising way to directly measure plant productivity from space. However, satellite SIF observations are only available at a coarse spatial resolution, making it impossible to monitor how individual crop types or farms are doing. This poses a challenging coarsely-supervised regression (or downscaling) task; at training time, we only have SIF labels at a coarse resolution (3km), but we want to predict SIF at much finer spatial resolutions (e.g. 30m, a 100x increase). We also have additional fine-resolution input features, but the relationship between these features and SIF is unknown. To address this, we propose Coarsely-Supervised Smooth U-Net (CS-SUNet), a novel method for this coarse supervision setting. CS-SUNet combines the expressive power of deep convolutional networks with novel regularization methods based on prior knowledge (such as a smoothness loss) that are crucial for preventing overfitting. Experiments show that CS-SUNet resolves fine-grained variations in SIF more accurately than existing methods.

Climate change is posing new challenges to crop-related concerns including food insecurity, supply stability and economic planning. As one of the central challenges, crop yield prediction has become a pressing task in the machine learning field. Despite its importance, the prediction task is exceptionally complicated since crop yields depend on various factors such as weather, land surface, soil quality as well as their interactions. In recent years, machine learning models have been successfully applied in this domain. However, these models either restrict their tasks to a relatively small region, or only study over a single or few years, which makes them hard to generalize spatially and temporally. In this paper, we introduce a novel graph-based recurrent neural network for crop yield prediction, to incorporate both geographical and temporal knowledge in the model, and further boost predictive power. Our method is trained, validated, and tested on over 2000 counties from 41 states in the US mainland, covering years from 1981 to 2019. As far as we know, this is the first machine learning method that embeds geographical knowledge in crop yield prediction and predicts the crop yields at county level nationwide. We also laid a solid foundation for the comparison with other machine learning baselines by applying well-known linear models, tree-based models, deep learning methods and comparing their performance. Experiments show that our proposed method consistently outperforms the existing state-of-the-art methods on various metrics, validating the effectiveness of geospatial and temporal information. * Equal contribution.