Abstract. Multi-year droughts in Mediterranean climates may shift the water balance, that is, the partitioning rule of precipitation across runoff, evapotranspiration, and sub-surface storage. Mechanisms causing these shifts remain largely unknown and are not well represented in hydrologic models. Focusing on measurements from the headwaters of California's Feather River, we found that also in these mixed rain–snow Mediterranean basins a lower fraction of precipitation was partitioned to runoff during multi-year droughts compared to non-drought years. This shift in the precipitation–runoff relationship was larger in the surface-runoff-dominated than subsurface-flow-dominated headwaters (−39 % vs. −18 % decline of runoff, respectively, for a representative precipitation amount). The predictive skill of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic model in these basins decreased during droughts, with evapotranspiration (ET) being the only water-balance component besides runoff for which the drop in predictive skill during drought vs. non-drought years was statistically significant. In particular, the model underestimated the response time required by ET to adjust to interannual climate variability, which we define as climate elasticity of ET. Differences between simulated and data-driven estimates of ET were well correlated with accompanying data-driven estimates of changes in sub-surface storage (ΔS, r=0.78). This correlation points to shifts in precipitation–runoff relationships being evidence of a hysteretic response of the water budget to climate elasticity of ET during and after multi-year droughts. This hysteresis is caused by carryover storage offsetting precipitation deficit during the initial drought period, followed by vegetation mortality when storage is depleted and subsequent post-drought vegetation expansion. Our results point to a general improvement in hydrologic predictions across drought and recovery cycles by including the climate elasticity of ET and better accounting for actual subsurface water storage in not only soil, but also deeper regolith that stores water accessible to roots. This can be done by explicitly parametrizing carryover storage and feedback mechanisms capturing vegetation response to atmospheric demand for moisture.

We assessed the response of densely forested watersheds with little apparent annual water limitation to forest disturbance and climate variability, by studying how past wildfires changed forest evapotranspiration and what past evapotranspiration patterns imply for the availability of subsurface water storage for drought resistance. We determined annual spatial patterns of evapotranspiration using a top-down statistical model, correlating measured annual evapotranspiration from eddy-covariance towers across California with normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) measured by satellite and with annual precipitation. The study area was the Yuba and American River watersheds, two densely forested watersheds in the northern Sierra Nevada. Wildfires in the 1985-2015 period resulted in significant post-fire reductions in evapotranspiration for at least 5 years and in some cases for more than 20 years. The levels of biomass removed in medium-intensity fires (25-75% basal area loss), similar to magnitudes expected from forest treatments for fuel reduction and forest health, reduced evapotranspiration by as much 150-200 mm year −1 for the first 5 years. Rates of recovery in post-wildfire evapotranspiration confirm the need for follow-up forest treatments at intervals of 5-20 years to sustain lower evapotranspiration, depending on local landscape attributes and interannual climate. Using the metric of cumulative precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET) during multiyear dry periods, we found that forests in the study area showed little evidence of moisture stress during the 1985-2018 period of our analysis, owing to relatively small reliance on interannual subsurface water storage to meet dry-year evapotranspiration needs of vegetation. However, more severe or sustained drought periods will push some lower-elevation forests in the area studied toward the cumulative PET thresholds previously associated with widespread forest mortality in the southern Sierra Nevada.

Analysis of measured evapotranspiration shows that subsurface plant‐accessible water storage (PAWS) can sustain evapotranspiration through multiyear dry periods. Measurements at 25 flux tower sites in the semiarid western United States, distributed across five land cover types, show both resistance and vulnerability to multiyear dry periods. Average (±standard deviation) evapotranspiration ranged from 660 ± 230 mm yr−1 (October–September) in evergreen needleleaf forests to 310 ± 200 mm yr−1 in grasslands and shrublands. More than 52% of the annual evapotranspiration in Mediterranean climates is supported on average by seasonal drawdown of subsurface PAWS, versus 29% in monsoon‐influenced climates. Snowmelt replenishes dry‐season PAWS by as much as 20% at sites with significant seasonal snow accumulation but was insignificant at most sites. Evapotranspiration exceeded precipitation in more than half of the observation years at sites below 35°N. Annual evapotranspiration at non‐energy‐limited sites increased with precipitation, reaching a mean wet‐year evapotranspiration of 833 mm for evergreen needleleaf forests, 861 mm for mixed forests, 558 mm for woody savannas, 367 mm for grasslands, and 254 mm for shrublands. Thirteen sites experienced at least one multiyear dry period, when mean precipitation was more than one standard deviation below the historical mean. All vegetation types except evergreen needleleaf forests responded to multiyear dry periods by lowering evapotranspiration and/or significant year‐over‐year depletion of subsurface PAWS. Sites maintained wet‐year evapotranspiration rates for 8–33 months before attenuation, with a corresponding net PAWS drawdown of as much as 334 mm. Net drawdown at many sites continued until the dry period ended, resulting in an overall cumulative withdrawal of as much as 558 mm. Evergreen needleleaf forests maintained high evapotranspiration during multiyear dry periods with no apparent PAWS drawdown; these forests currently avoid drought but may prove vulnerable to longer and warmer dry periods that reduce snowpack storage and accelerate evapotranspiration.

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the water balance, which influences hydrometeorology, water resources, carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, and ecosystem diversity. This study aims to investigate the spatio-temporal variations of ET at the East River watershed in Colorado and analyze the factors that control these variations. ET was acquired using the community land model (CLM) simulations and was compared with the values estimated using Fu’s equation and a watershed-scale water balance equation. The simulation results showed that 55% of annual precipitation in the East River is lost to ET, in which 75% of the ET comes from the summer months (May to September). We also found that the contribution of transpiration to the total ET was ~50%, which is much larger than that of soil evaporation (32%) and canopy evaporation (18%). Spatial analysis indicated that the ET is greater at elevations of 2950–3200 m and lower along the river valley (<2750 m) and at the high elevations (>3900 m). A correlation analysis of factors affecting ET showed that the land elevation, air temperature, and vegetation are closely correlated and together they govern the ET spatial variability. The results also suggested that ET in areas with more finely textured soil is slightly larger than regions with coarse-texture soil. This study presents a promising approach to the assessment of ET with a high spatiotemporal resolution over watershed scales and investigates factors controlling ET spatiotemporal variations.

Highlights ̶ On average, evapotranspiration dropped 265 mm yr-1 during the 1 st year after a fire, and 169 mm yr-1 over 15 years. ̶ Wildfire impacts on evapotranspiration were greatest in dense, mid-elevation (900-1300 m asl) forests. ̶ Restoration of forest density to near historical conditions, or an equivalent increase in wildfire, could further reduce evapotranspiration by up to 9%.