No abstract

High-resolution analyses of a late Holocene core from Kettle Lake in North Dakota reveal coeval fluctuations in loss-on-ignition carbonate content, percentage of grass pollen, and charcoal flux. These oscillations are indicative of climate-fuel-fire cycles that have prevailed on the Northern Great Plains (NGP) for most of the late Holocene. High charcoal flux occurred during past moist intervals when grass cover was extensive and fuel loads were high, whereas reduced charcoal flux characterized the intervening droughts when grass cover, and hence fuel loads, decreased, illustrating that fire is not a universal feature of the NGP through time but oscillates with climate. Spectral and wavelet analyses reveal that the cycles have a periodicity of Ϸ160 yr, although secular trends in the cycles are difficult to identify for the entire Holocene because the periodicity in the early Holocene ranged between 80 and 160 yr. Although the cycles are evident for most of the last 4,500 yr, their occasional muting adds further to the overall climatic complexity of the plains. These findings clearly show that the continental interior of North America has experienced short-term climatic cycles accompanied by a marked landscape response for several millennia, regularly alternating between dual landscape modes. The documentation of cycles of similar duration at other sites in the NGP, western North America, and Greenland suggests some degree of regional coherence to climatic forcing. Accordingly, the effects of global warming from increasing greenhouse gases will be superimposed on this natural variability of drought.charcoal ͉ Holocene ͉ Northern Great Plains ͉ pollen ͉ aridity cycles

Widespread drought is among the most likely and devastating consequences of future global change. Assessment of drought impacts forecast by atmospheric models requires an understanding of natural drought variability, especially under conditions more arid than today. Using high‐resolution lake‐sediment records from the northern Great Plains, we show pronounced 100‐ to 130‐yr drought cycles during the arid middle Holocene (8000 calendar yr BP). During drought phases, grass productivity declined, erosion and forbs increased, and fuel limitation reduced fire importance. Intervening humid decades saw grass production rise, with stabilization of soils and renewed fire as fuels became abundant. Although both C3 and C4 grasses declined during droughts, a lasting shift to C3 dominance occurred during a single drought ∼8200 calendar yr BP. During the more humid Late Holocene (2800 calendar yr BP), climate was less variable and without evident drought cyclicity. Consequently, drought severity during past, and possibly future, arid phases cannot be anticipated from the attenuated climate variability evident during contemporary humid phases. Our study demonstrates that agriculturally important grassland ecosystems respond sensitively to drought variability, uncertainty in which has profound implications for the future of these ecosystems.