During the Bow Echo and Mesoscale Convective Vortex Experiment, the NOAA P-3 research aircraft executed 17 spiral descents to the rear of convective lines to document the vertical variability of hydrometeors above, within, and below the stratiform melting layer. Ten spirals were behind lines that exhibited bowing at some stage in their evolution. Although quick descents on some spirals forced sampling of different particle zones, clear trends with respect to temperature were seen. For 16 spirals, the ambient relative humidity with respect to ice was in the range of 100% ± 4% at temperatures between −10°C and the melting layer, but exhibited steady decreases below the melting layer to an average relative humidity with respect to water of 77% ± 15% at 9°C. In contrast, one spiral conducted on 29 June 2003 directly behind a developing bow echo had a relative humidity with respect to ice averaging 85% at heights above the 0°C level and relative humidity with respect to ice further decreased below the 0°C level to a minimum relative humidity with respect to water of 48% at 9°C. Vertical profiles of particle shapes, size distributions (SDs), total mass contents (TMC), number concentrations, and parameters of gamma distributions fit to SDs were computed using optical array probe data in conjunction with measurements of radar reflectivity from the P-3 X-band tail radar. For spirals with humidity at or near saturation above the melting layer, melting particles occurred through about 300 m of cloud depth between 0° and 2° or 3°C. Above the melting layer, number concentrations, dominated by smaller crystals, decreased at 19% ± 10% °C−1, faster than the 10% ± 7% °C−1 decrease of TMC dominated by larger particles. Increases in the numbers of crystals with a maximum dimension <2 mm (N<2) and in the slope parameter with temperature also occurred. To the extent that in-cloud heterogeneity did not complicate observed trends, these trends suggest aggregation dominated the evolution of SDs. Observations on 29 June differ from other days and are explained by the unique position and timing of the spiral in subsaturated air behind a developing bow. On 29 June the presence of an isothermal layer at 2.5°C suggested that sublimative cooling delayed the onset of melting. Ice at 7°C showed that melting particles were present through 500 m of cloud depth. A slight decrease in N<2, but no decrease in the slope parameter, with temperature suggested that sublimation modified the impact of aggregation. Sublimative cooling would only have been significant at the location of the 29 June spiral. For other spirals, evaporative cooling below the melting layer in subsaturated regions was the most important diabatic processes in the stratiform regions at the time of the observations.

An object-based verification technique that keys off the radar-retrieved vertically integrated liquid (VIL) is used to evaluate how well the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) predicted mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in 2012 and 2013. It is found that the modeled radar VIL values are roughly 50% lower than observed. This mean bias is accounted for by reducing the radar VIL threshold used to identify MCSs in the HRRR. This allows for a more fair evaluation of the model’s skill at predicting MCSs. Using an optimized VIL threshold for each summer, it is found that the HRRR reproduces the first (i.e., counts) and second moments (i.e., size distribution) of the observed MCS size distribution averaged over the eastern United States, as well as their aspect ratio, orientation, and diurnal variations. Despite threshold optimization, the HRRR tended to predict too many (few) MCSs at lead times less (greater) than 4 h because of lead time–dependent biases in the modeled radar VIL. The HRRR predicted too many MCSs over the Great Plains and too few MCSs over the southeastern United States during the day. These biases are related to the model’s tendency to initiate too many MCSs over the Great Plains and too few MCSs over the southeastern United States. Additional low biases found over the Mississippi River valley region at night revealed a tendency for the HRRR to dissipate MCSs too quickly. The skill of the HRRR at predicting specific MCS events increased between 2012 and 2013, coinciding with changes in both the model physics and in the methods used to assimilate the three-dimensional radar reflectivity.

This study examines the development, structure, and forcing of the rear inflow jet (RIJ) through the life cycle of a small, short-lived squall line over north-central Kansas on 29 June 2003. The analyses were developed from airborne quad-Doppler tail radar data from the NOAA and NRL P-3 aircraft, obtained over a 2-h period encompassing the formation, development, and decay of the squall line during the Bow Echo and Mesoscale Convective Vortex Experiment (BAMEX). The strengthening of the system-relative rear inflow to 17 m s 21 was concurrent with the formation of a bow echo, an increased dynamic pressure gradient beneath the rearward-tilted updraft, and two counterrotating vortices at either end of the bow. The later weakening of the RIJ to 8 m s 21 was concurrent with the weakening of the bow, a decreased dynamic pressure gradient at midlevels behind the bow, and the weakening and spreading of the vortices. In a modeling study, Weisman quantified the forcing mechanisms responsible for the development of an RIJ. This present study is the first to quantitatively analyze these mechanisms using observational data. The forcing for the horizontal rear inflow was analyzed at different stages of system evolution by evaluating the contributions of four forcing mechanisms: 1) the horizontal pressure gradient resulting from the vertical buoyancy distribution (dP B ), 2) the dynamic pressure gradient induced by the circulation between the vortices (dP V ), 3) the dynamic irrotational pressure gradient (dP I ), and 4) the background synoptic-scale dynamic pressure gradient (dP S ). During the formative stage of the bow, dP I was the strongest forcing mechanism, contributing 50% to the rear inflow. However, during the mature and weakening stages, dP I switched signs and opposed the rear inflow while the combination of dP B and dP V accounted for at least 70% of the rear inflow. The dP S forced 4%-25% of the rear inflow throughout the system evolution.

This paper compares the structure of the trough of warm air aloft (trowal)–warm-frontal region of two continental wintertime cyclones. The cyclones were observed over the central Great Lakes region during the Lake-Induced Convection Experiment/Snowband Dynamics Project field campaign. The cyclones had different origins, with the first forming east of the Colorado Rockies and the second forming over the Gulf of Mexico. They were associated with different upper-level flow regimes, one located just north of a nearly zonal jet and the other located just west of a nearly meridional jet. Both storms produced heavy swaths of snow across the states of Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan. High-resolution observations of frontal structure were made during flights of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Electra aircraft using dropsondes and the Electra Doppler Radar tail radar system. The high-resolution observations suggest a different arrangement of air masses in the trowal region compared with the classical occlusion model, where the trowal axis forms at the intersection of a warm front and a cold front that has overtaken and subsequently ascended the warm front. In both cyclones dry air intruded over the warm front, isolating the warm, moist airflow within the trowal airstream. Very sharp moisture gradients were present at the leading edge of the dry air in both cyclones. In each case, relative humidity differences of over 50% were observed over distances of 10–20 km. The thermal gradient near the leading edge of the dry air in one cyclone was diffuse, so that the moist–dry boundary could best be characterized as an upper-level humidity front. In the other cyclone, the thermal gradient was sharper and aligned with the moisture boundary and was best characterized as a cold front aloft. The analyses suggest that the classical conceptual model of the trowal, at least in some cyclones such as the two illustrated here, needs to be revised to include the possibility that the warm moist airstream aloft may sometimes be bounded on its south side by an upper-level front rather than a surface-based cold front. Since the two cyclones discussed here had different origins, tracks, and flow regimes, the similarity of their structure suggests that these features may be common.