The large uncertainties in the forecasting of future global climatic conditions endorse the need of developing simple yet credible predicting tools. Here we propose a threezone steady-state radiative model that maximizes latitudinal heat fluxes and considers the potential effect of the Earth s declination. The model is formulated as a set of five equations and six unknowns (zonal temperatures and widths, and the latitudinal heat transport) that requires specifying the reflected (albedo) and back-to-Earth (greenhouse) radiation fractions and obliges turning the low-latitude temperature into an additional parameter. The results do depend on the Earth declination, with changes of 0.5/1.5 K in the intermediate/high zones, which is interpreted as potentially affecting the greenhouse and high-latitude albedo coefficients. Therefore, we focus on identifying the effects of changes in these parameters properly selected to represent last-glacial-maximum, modern and end-of the-century conditions. The main change is a large rise of the high-latitude temperature, favored both by a decrease in the highlatitude albedo and an increase in the greenhouse factor. For the other variables, the temporal changes in these parameters compete among them, resulting in one trend from glacial to modern times and a reversal between now and the end of the 21 st century (currently a warming-narrowing of the intermediate region and the widening of both the low-and high-latitude zones); however, we note that an increase in the low-latitude temperature would tend to alleviate these changes. Despite its simplicity, the model leads to realistic global trends, becoming a useful simple tool for exploring the sensitivity of the Earth s heat distribution to changes in radiative fluxes and endorsing the validity of the maximum latitudinal-heat-transport premise.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.