Abstract. Climate change mitigation efforts require information on the current greenhouse gas atmospheric concentrations and their sources and sinks. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Its variability in the atmosphere is modulated by the synergy between weather and CO2 surface fluxes, often referred to as CO2 weather. It is interpreted with the help of global or regional numerical transport models, with horizontal resolutions ranging from a few hundreds of kilometres to a few kilometres. Changes in the model horizontal resolution affect not only atmospheric transport but also the representation of topography and surface CO2 fluxes. This paper assesses the impact of horizontal resolution on the simulated atmospheric CO2 variability with a numerical weather prediction model. The simulations are performed using the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) CO2 forecasting system at different resolutions from 9 to 80 km and are evaluated using in situ atmospheric surface measurements and atmospheric column-mean observations of CO2, as well as radiosonde and SYNOP observations of the winds. The results indicate that both diurnal and day-to-day variability of atmospheric CO2 are generally better represented at high resolution, as shown by a reduction in the errors in simulated wind and CO2. Mountain stations display the largest improvements at high resolution as they directly benefit from the more realistic orography. In addition, the CO2 spatial gradients are generally improved with increasing resolution for both stations near the surface and those observing the total column, as the overall inter-station error is also reduced in magnitude. However, close to emission hotspots, the high resolution can also lead to a deterioration of the simulation skill, highlighting uncertainties in the high-resolution fluxes that are more diffuse at lower resolutions. We conclude that increasing horizontal resolution matters for modelling CO2 weather because it has the potential to bring together improvements in the surface representation of both winds and CO2 fluxes, as well as an expected reduction in numerical errors of transport. Modelling applications like atmospheric inversion systems to estimate surface fluxes will only be able to benefit fully from upgrades in horizontal resolution if the topography, winds and prior flux distribution are also upgraded accordingly. It is clear from the results that an additional increase in resolution might reduce errors even further. However, the horizontal resolution sensitivity tests indicate that the change in the CO2 and wind modelling error with resolution is not linear, making it difficult to quantify the improvement beyond the tested resolutions. Finally, we show that the high-resolution simulations are useful for the assessment of the small-scale variability of CO2 which cannot be represented in coarser-resolution models. These representativeness errors need to be considered when assimilating in situ data and high-resolution satellite data such as Greenhouse gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT), Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), the Chinese Carbon Dioxide Observation Satellite Mission (TanSat) and future missions such as the Geostationary Carbon Observatory (GeoCarb) and the Sentinel satellite constellation for CO2. For these reasons, the high-resolution CO2 simulations provided by the CAMS in real time can be useful to estimate such small-scale variability in real time, as well as providing boundary conditions for regional modelling studies and supporting field experiments.

The new “Crown” aircraft sampling (CAS) approach integrates CO2 data obtained through horizontal transects and vertical profiles, sampling a specific volume of air at different atmospheric sections: 600 m, 1200 m, and 2500 m above the sea level (masl). This approach provides new tools to model fluxes in relation with meteorological conditions. It has been applied over a plain in the basin of the river called Ebre in the North East of Spain, with a triangular section defined by Linyola, Mequinensa's dam and Binèfar, taking up 1500 km2. The main human activity is agriculture, either irrigated or dry land. Horizontal transects at 600 and 1200 masl were sampled for CO2, with vertical profiles at the vertexes from 600 to 2500 masl (ground level is around 400 masl). The three‐dimensional configuration of the CAS Design enables the study of the CO2 fluxes between sections. Data have been obtained on a monthly basis since February 2006 until nowadays. In order to study the influence of forced turbulence in the atmospheric CO2 spatial distribution, two data sets are examined: the flight of 7 February 2006, performed under stable anticyclonic weather conditions; and the 6 March 2006 flight, characterized by strong northerly winds. The presence of stable/unstable layers in the February flight resulted in a stepwise vertical distribution of CO2 (with an increase from the free troposphere, 383 ppmv, to 400 ppmv close to the ground) whereas the unstable low troposphere sampled in March 2006 provided flat CO2 vertical profiles (concentrations ranging from 385 to 387 ppmv). In regard to the variability in the horizontal sections, the calculation of the Hurst exponents (H) provides a way to measure the persistence of vertical transport along the horizontal transects. In the February flight, CO2 concentration in transects shows the imprint of a spreading vertical transport from land (H > 0.90) but it is partially wiped away by high turbulence levels in the March flight (H = 0.79). From these results we expect CAS Design to provide better estimates of CO2 fluxes in the future.

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During the summer of 2018, a widespread drought developed over Northern and Central Europe. The increase in temperature and the reduction of soil moisture have influenced carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems in various ways, such as a reduction of photosynthesis, changes in ecosystem respiration, or allowing more frequent fires. In this study, we characterize the resulting perturbation of the atmospheric CO 2 seasonal cycles. 2018 has a good coverage of European regions affected by drought, allowing the investigation of how ecosystem flux anomalies impacted spatial CO 2 gradients between stations. This density of stations is unprecedented compared to previous drought events in 2003 and 2015, particularly thanks to the deployment of the Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) network of atmospheric greenhouse gas monitoring stations in recent years. Seasonal CO 2 cycles from 48 European stations were available for 2017 and 2018. Earlier data were retrieved for comparison from international databases or national networks. Here, we show that the usual summer minimum in CO 2 due to the surface carbon uptake was reduced by 1.4 ppm in 2018 for the 10 stations located in the area most affected by the temperature anomaly, mostly in Northern Europe. Notwithstanding, the CO 2 transition phases before and after July were slower in 2018 compared to 2017, suggesting an extension of the growing season, with either continued CO 2 uptake by photosynthesis and/or a reduction in respiration driven by the depletion of substrate for respiration inherited from the previous months due to the drought. For stations with sufficiently long time series, the CO 2 anomaly observed in 2018 was compared to previous European droughts in 2003 and 2015. Considering the areas most affected by the temperature anomalies, we found a higher CO 2 anomaly in 2003 (+3 ppm averaged over 4 sites), and a smaller anomaly in 2015 (+1 ppm averaged over 11 sites) compared to 2018. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Impacts of the 2018 severe drought and heatwave in Europe: from site to continental scale'.

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