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Several central banks have leaned against the wind in the housing market by increasing the policy rate preemptively to prevent a bubble. Yet the empirical literature provides mixed results on the impact of short-term interest rates on house prices: the estimated semi-elasticities range from -12 to positive values. To assign a pattern to these differences, we collect 1,447 estimates from 31 individual studies that cover 45 countries and 69 years. We then relate the estimates to 39 characteristics of the financial system, business cycle, and estimation approach. Our main results are threefold. First, the mean reported estimate is exaggerated by publication bias, because insignificant results are underreported. Second, omission of important variables (liquidity and long-term rates) likewise exaggerates the effects of short-term rates on house prices. Third, the effects are stronger in countries with more developed mortgage markets and generally later in the cycle when the yield curve is flat and house prices enter an upward spiral.

We collected over 1600 estimates on the relationship between bank capital and lending and construct 40 variables to capture the context in which these estimates are obtained. Accounting for potential publication bias, we find that a 1 percentage point (pp) increase in capital (regulatory) ratio results in around 0.3 pp increase in annual credit growth, while changes to capital requirements cause a decrease of around 0.7 pp. Using Bayesian and frequentist model averaging, we show that the relationship between bank capital and lending changes over time, reflecting the post‐crisis period of increasingly demanding bank capital regulation and subdued profitability. We also find that the reported estimates of semi‐elasticities are significantly influenced by the empirical approach chosen by researchers. Our findings suggest that the literature fails to provide policymakers with reliable estimates of the effects of capital regulation on bank lending, and our study offers insights that could help guide future research.

We examine the potential adverse effects of a prolonged period of low interest rates on financial stability from multiple perspectives. First, we provide a unique comparison of natural rates of interest estimated using two approaches—with and without financial factors—for six large European countries inside and outside the euro area. Second, we provide a comprehensive review of the empirical literature, allowing us to identify and categorize financial vulnerabilities, which may be created and fueled by low interest rates. Third, we discuss a situation in which a prolonged period of low interest rates may lead to a point of no return by contributing to higher indebtedness, overvalued asset prices and underpriced risks, resource and credit misallocation, and lower productivity. With respect to all of that, we offer a few monetary policy considerations. Specifically, we suggest that (i) monetary policy should act symmetrically over the medium to long term, (ii) both the short‐term and long‐term costs and benefits of pursuing accommodative or restrictive monetary policy should be accounted for, and (iii) monetary and macroprudential policies need to be coordinated, and their interactions should be accounted for in order to find the best policy mix for the economy.

Several central banks have leaned against the wind in the housing market by increasing the policy rate preemptively to prevent a bubble. Yet the empirical literature provides mixed results on the impact of short-term interest rates on house prices: the estimated semi-elasticities range from −12 to positive values. To assign a pattern to these differences, we collect 1,447 estimates from 31 individual studies that cover 45 countries and 69 years. We then relate the estimates to 39 characteristics of the financial system, business cycle, and estimation approach. Our main results are threefold. First, the mean reported estimate is exaggerated by publication bias, because insignificant results are underreported. Second, omission of important variables (liquidity and long-term rates) likewise exaggerates the effects of short-term rates on house prices. Third, the effects are stronger in countries with more developed mortgage markets and generally later in the cycle when the yield curve is flat and house prices enter an upward spiral.

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