We use a mean-reverting interest rate model and a lognormal house price diffusion model to evaluate British fixed rate repayment mortgage contracts with (embedded) default and prepayment options. The model also provides values for capped mortgage indemnity guarantees and the corresponding (residual) lender's coinsurance. Since the partial differential equation incorporating the general features of these mortgage contracts does not have a closed-form solution, an explicit finite difference method is used for the valuation (and sensitivity) results, with solution improvements to deal with error bounds. Then we provide graphical representations of each mortgage component as a function of house prices and interest rate levels, along with interpretations of the analysis. We calculate precisely the lender's (residual) exposure to house price risk, given the borrower's options, house and interest rate uncertainty, and customary mortgage indemnity insurance for high loan/collateral ratio mortgages. Copyright 2002 by the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.
In this paper, the optimal timing for investing in high-speed rail projects under uncertainty in relation to the utility provided to railway users was investigated. To accomplish this, a continuous time real options analysis framework using a stochastic demand model was developed to determine the optimal time to invest. Uncertainty upon investment expenditures was also added in an extended framework. The value of the option to defer and the investment opportunity value were also assessed.
A crise económica que eclodiu nas democracias europeias periféricas a partir de 2009 teve, em vários países da Europa do Sul, consequências graves em termos de estabilidade governativa e dos sistemas partidários. Neste contexto, o caso português tem sido apontado como excecional, visto que o agravamento da situação económica e as suas consequências políticas não provocaram uma afirmação eleitoral sem precedentes de forças de esquerda radical (como na Espanha e na Grécia). Neste artigo, apresenta-se o panorama da esquerda radical em Portugal e procede-se à análise de algumas dimensões associadas a este fenómeno de maior estabilidade do sistema partidário português à esquerda, nomeadamente a ausência de um fenómeno SYRIZA ou Podemos, recorrendo a explicações de natureza económica, ligadas à cultura política e à natureza do sistema partidário consolidado nas últimas quadro décadas.
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