Para completar los datos faltantes en los registros de la precipitación pluvial anual reportados por 13 estaciones climatológicas distribuidas en el área de la Cuenca Guadalupe se realizó un análisis de regresión lineal entre estaciones cercanas. Para determinar la utilidad de la inferencia estadística, se calculó el coeficiente de correlación lineal (r), en todos los casos se obtuvo un alto valor que en promedio fue r=0.89, también se calculó la eficiencia estadística (E), la cual en todos los casos analizados sugiere la viabilidad de la inferencia estadística. Como resultado principal de este análisis se presenta una base de datos de precipitación pluvial completa para elperiodo 1948-2012.
Semiarid northwestern Mexico presents a growing water demand produced by agricultural and domestic requirements during the last two decades. The community of Guadalupe Valley and the city of Ensenada rely on groundwater pumping from the local aquifer as its sole source of water supply. This dependency has resulted in an imbalance between groundwater pumpage and natural recharge. A two-dimensional groundwater flow model was applied to the Guadalupe Valley Aquifer, which was calibrated and validated for the period 1984-2005. The model analysis verified that groundwater levels in the region are subject to steep declines due to decades of intensive groundwater exploitation for agricultural and domestic purposes. The calibrated model was used to assess the effects of different water management scenarios for the period 2007-2025. If the base case (status quo) scenario continues, groundwater levels are in a continuous drawdown trend. Some wells would run dry by August 2017, and water demand may not be met without incurring in an overdraft. The optimistic scenario implies the achievement of the mean groundwater recharge and discharge. Groundwater level depletion could be stopped and restored. The sustainable scenario implies the reduction of current extraction (up to about 50 %), when groundwater level depletion could be stopped. A reduction in current extraction mitigates water stress in the aquifer but cannot solely reverse declining water tables across the region. The combination of reduced current extraction and an implemented alternative solution (such as groundwater artificial recharge), provides the most effective measure to stabilize and reverse declining groundwater levels while meeting water demands in the region.
Although some studies have been conducted to compute fragility surfaces of buildings using vector-valued seismic intensity measures (IMs), in all the cases, the first component of the vector usually is the spectral acceleration at first mode of vibration of the structure Sa(T1). In this study, fragility surfaces of three reinforced concrete buildings (RCB) subjected to narrow-band ground motions obtained from soft soil of Mexico City are computed considering vector-valued IMs based not only on Sa(T1), but also the velocity V(T1), pseudo-velocity Sv(T1), and normalized input energy by the mass EI/m(T1) as the first component. As second component of the vector-valued IMs, the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Peak Ground Velocity (PGV), effective duration (tD), earthquake damage potential (ID) and four Np spectral shape-based parameters obtained through spectral acceleration (NpSa), velocity (NpV), pseudo-velocity (NpSv), and input energy (NpEI) have been analyzed. In order to obtain fragility surfaces, Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) was applied. It is observed that those vector-valued IMs based on the spectral shape proxies were more efficient to predict the probability of failure of RCB. For this reason, it is important to consider spectral shape vector-valued IMs in order to reduce uncertainty in the structural response of buildings under earthquakes. Thus, the use of two parameters instead of a single intensity measure improves the efficiency. Moreover, the fragility surfaces can be used for the seismic risk evaluation of buildings.
Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures Back Close Full Screen / Esc Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion EGU Abstract A regional groundwater flow model was developed, in order to evaluate the water table behavior in the region of the Guadalupe Valley, in Baja California, Mexico. The State of Baja California has been subject to an increment of the agricultural, urban and industrials activities, implicating a growing water-demand. However, the State is characterized 5 by its semi-arid climate with low surface water availability; resulting in an extensive use of groundwater in local aquifer. Based on historic piezometric information of the last two decades, however, a negative evolution could be observed, resulting a negative storage volume. So far, there is not an integral hydrogeological evaluation that determine the real condition of the groundwater resource, and that permit to planning a manage-10 ment of the Guadalupe Valley Aquifer. A steady-state calibration model was carried out in order to obtain the best possible match to measured levels at the Guadalupe Valley Aquifer. The contours of calculated water table elevations for January 1983 were reproduced. Generally, the comparison of the observed and calculated water table configurations have a good qualitative and quantitatively adjustment. Nowadays, it is 15 count with a hydrogeological model that can be used for simulates the groundwater flow in the region of the Guadalupe Valley. agricultural needs in the valley, as well as the water-demand of Ensenada City. Based 708 HESSD 3, 707-730, 2006 Abstract Introduction Conclusions References Tables HESSD 3, 707-730, 2006 Abstract Introduction Conclusions ReferencesTables 25 area, the transmissivity ranged from about 0.34×10 −3 to 52.40×10 −3 m 2 /s, but values greater than 1×10 −3 m 2 /s are predominantly (Andrade, 1997). 3, 2006 Abstract Introduction 710 HESSD Conclusions ReferencesTables HESSD 3, 707-730, 2006 Abstract Introduction Conclusions ReferencesTables Abstract Introduction Conclusions References Tables HESSD 3, 707-730, 2006 Abstract Introduction Conclusions ReferencesTables Abstract Introduction Conclusions ReferencesTables Abstract Introduction Conclusions ReferencesTables
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