Each company faces day to day investment opportunities. Just by staying in business the company is taking a decision of reinvesting capital. These opportunities have to be fairly valued to overcome misallocation of resources. A project with high growth opportunities requires high reinvestments to take full advantage of them until it reaches its mature stage. These investments can be seen as a succession of call options on future growth. When a company with such prospects is valued using the discounted cash flow technique and growth is taken implicitly in the growing cash flows and the residual value, the value thus obtained will be higher than the true one (under certain circumstances). Technology advances and the effects of globalization create enormous growth opportunities, and so misvaluation risks are higher.
Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in AbstractFew papers provide research about options returns, and the few available are focused in the analysis from the perspective of the long side of the option contract, i.e. the buyer that pays the price and her expected and realized option return. The main point of our research work is to provide a simple metric to analyze option returns from the perspective of the short side of the contract, the seller, where at the time of the sale of naked options, capital is committed in the form of a guarantee or margin (similar to net worth). We estimate realized returns from passive investment strategies, by assuming puts and calls are kept until the expiration of the maturity.To that purpose we develop an appropriate algorithm which is applied on real historic data. Our result is a distribution of realized option returns (ex-ante prices and ex-post cash flows whether the options end up in or out-of-the-money with respect to margin requirements) for the seller point of view, as if the seller was an insurer seeking to calculate how profitable the insurance activity is.From the results we can see that selling puts is more profitable than selling calls, without adjusting for the return of the underlying asset and for the risk free rate of return, something in line with what was expected, but we also find that the risk is approximately the same. We also find that time tends to increase the realized returns, measured everything on annual basis.JEL: C1, C3, N2, G11.
When analyzing options returns, most papers tend to focus on the expected and realized return from strategies where the investors are long on those financial instruments. We conduct a test searching for excess returns on passive options investment strategies resorting to a four factor model, evaluating the case of an investor who launches options and evaluates returns to the light of capital invested in the form of margins requirement. The main point of our research work is to continue the line of research where we evaluate options returns using the metrics with respect to margin requirements. We find that there are excess returns not explained by the four factor model, which in turn may indicate the strategy generates extra returns, or that the investor going short on options provides insurance to events not captured by the traditional models. JEL: C1, C3, N2, G11.
Volatility of GDP, macro applications and policy implications of real options for structure of capital markets The traditional marshallian rule of investing (abandoning) when the value of an underlying asset is above (below) the cost of an alternative investment is modified in the presence of uncertainty and irreversibility giving rise to an option component into decisions. This component is affected by the degree of volatility of underlying assets, which in turn can derive their volatility from the economy as a whole, affecting the investment process and therefore the accumulation of capital and future growth. In the same tense, the evidence of volatility in the returns of the underlying assets of the economy affects the market value of debt contracts, conveying recommendations regarding the financial architecture of the economy and the type of financial instruments better suited. The paper explores the application of contingent claims analysis both to the potential effect of macro volatility on aggregate investment, and to the effect on the presence of high levels of indebtedness of the economy, with a special application to the Argentinean economy where we obtain that economies with high level of volatility would require a significant level of internal saving and capital markets driven mainly by equity instruments of financing, which helps to better accommodate uncertainty by means of the price of assets.JEL: G00, F36, O16.
Unlike passive management, where investors almost do not buy and sell securities, active management involves a set of trading rules that govern investment decisions regarding mainly market timing. In this paper, we take the basics of active management and the two fund separation approach, to exploit the fact that an investor can switch between the market portfolio and the risk free asset according to the perceived state of the nature. Our purpose is to evaluate if there is an active management premium by testing performance with our own non-conventional multifactor model, constructed with a Hidden Markov Model which depending on the market states signaled by the level of volatility spread. We have documented that effectively, there is present a premium for actively manage the strategies, giving evidence against the idea that "active managers" destroy capital. We then propose the volatility spread as the active management factor into the Carhart´s model used to evaluate trading strategies with respect to a benchmark portfolio.
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