Starting from the Hamiltonian model for a solid Earth with an elastic mantle previously developped by the authors, analytical expressions are derived which give the nutation series corresponding to the plane perpendicular to the angular momentum vector, to the plane perpendicular to the rotational axis and to the equator of figure, as well as the series that give the polar motion. The effects of the different perturbations -solid Earth, centrifugal and tidal potentials -are calculated separately. The corrections due to the elasticity of the mantle, which mostly correspond to the Oppolzer terms, are calculated with an accuracy of 10 -6 arc sec., given that the intrinsic observational accuracy has reached 0.0l mas.
We focus on the updating of a specific contribution to the precession of the equator in longitude, usually named as "second order." It stems from the crossing of certain terms of the lunisolar gravitational potential. The IAU2006 precession theory assigns it the value of −46.8 mas/cy that was derived for a rigid Earth model. Instead of that model, we consider a two-layer Earth composed of an elastic mantle and a liquid core, working out the problem within the Hamiltonian framework developed by Getino and Ferrándiz. The targeted effect is obtained without further simplifying assumptions through Hori's canonical perturbation method applied up to the second order of perturbation. On account of using a more realistic Earth model, the revised value of the second-order contribution is significantly changed and reaches −55.29 mas/cy. That variation of the second-order contribution is larger than other contributions included in IAU2006. It must be compensated with an increase of −8.51 mas/cy in the value of the lunisolar first-order component ¢ p A of the precession of the equator rate, which is derived from the total rate by subtracting the remaining contributions accounted for in IAU2006 precession. The updating of the second-order contribution implies that the ¢ p A parameter has to be changed, from 5040684.593 to 5040693.104 mas/cy in absence of potential revisions of other contributions. It entails a proportional variation of Earth's dynamical ellipticity H d , for which the estimation associated with IAU2006, 0.00327379448, should be updated to 0.00327380001, about 1.7 ppm larger.
The real-time estimation of polar motion (PM) is needed for the navigation of Earth satellite and interplanetary spacecraft. However, it is impossible to have real-time information due to the complexity of the measurement model and data processing. Various prediction methods have been developed. However, the accuracy of PM prediction is still not satisfactory even for a few days in the future. Therefore, new techniques or a combination of the existing methods need to be investigated for improving the accuracy of the predicted PM. There is a well-introduced method called Copula, and we want to combine it with singular spectrum analysis (SSA) method for PM prediction. In this study, first, we model the predominant trend of PM time series using SSA. Then, the difference between PM time series and its SSA estimation is modeled using Copula-based analysis. Multiple sets of PM predictions which range between 1 and 365 days have been performed based on an IERS 08 C04 time series to assess the capability of our hybrid model. Our results illustrate that the proposed method can efficiently predict PM. The improvement in PM prediction accuracy up to 365 days in the future is found to be around 40% on average and up to 65 and 46% in terms of success rate for the and , respectively.
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