Background: Despite its enormous health and social burden, there are limited published studies describing the epidemiology of violent deaths in Chile. We described violent mortality rate trends in Chile between 2001 and 2018, its current spatial distribution and ecological level correlates. Methods: A population-based study using publicly accessible data. We calculated age-adjusted mortality rates per 100,000 persons for sex, age, intention, and mechanism of death. Next, we used linear regression to estimate time trends for sex and intention. We then employed hierarchical Poisson analyses to model the spatial distribution across 345 municipalities and the influence of six ecological level variables. Results: The average rate of violent death in Chile between 2001 and 2018 was 15.9 per 100,000 people, with the majority (70.3%) of these attributed to suicide. Suffocation was the most common mechanism of death for suicide (82.3%) and cut/pierce for homicide (43.1%), followed by firearm (33.2%). Violent deaths are trending downward in Chile across all categories except suicides by women, which have remained stable. Poverty rates and urban population were positively associated with violent mortality rates. Conclusions: Although violence-related deaths seem to be decreasing, disparities across gender, age group, and geographic location may have continuing effects on mortality rates.
Studies on presidential approval in consolidated and emerging democracies identify similar determinants of popular support and show a common U-shaped cyclical pattern, with higher levels of support during the honeymoon period and in the last year of the presidential term and lower support in the in-between years. Since democracy was restored in 1990, Chile has had six presidential terms. With some nuances, presidential approval has evolved following the same cyclical pattern of higher approval at the beginning and end of the administrations. Using 66 presidential approval polls from Centro de Estudios Públicos between 1990 and 2018 (N=82,984), we assess the effect of party identification and economic vote variables on presidential approval. We show that party identification matters in the approval of all presidents. We also show that economic vote variables affect presidential approval for all presidents, though the effect was stronger for Ricardo Lagos (2000-2006) on average. Resumen Los estudios sobre aprobación presidencial en las democracias consolidadas y emergentes identifican determinantes similares de apoyo popular y muestran un patrón cíclico en forma de U, con niveles más altos de apoyo al comienzo del gobierno y en el último año del período presidencial y niveles más bajos en años interme-1 This work was supported by Comisión Nacional de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica [Conicyt/Fondap/151300009] and Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico [1171051]. Replications are available upon request.
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