In this paper we analyse a semi-parametric estimation technique for competing risks models based on series expansion of the joint density of the unobserved heterogeneity components. This technique allows for unrestricted correlation among the risks. The finite sample behavior of the estimation technique is analysed in a Monte Carlo experiment using an empirically relevant data-generating process. The estimator performs well when compared with the Heckman--Singer estimator. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2007

This paper develops a new semiparametric approach for the estimation of hazard functions in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity+ The hazard function is specified parametrically, whereas the distribution of the unobserved heterogeneity is indirectly estimated using the method of kernels+ The semiparametric efficiency bounds are derived+ The estimator obtains these bounds in large samples+ The authors thank

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We develop an empirical framework for the credit risk analysis of a generic portfolio of revolving credit accounts and apply it to analyze a representative panel data set of credit card accounts from a credit bureau. These data cover the period of the most recent deep recession and provide the opportunity to analyze the performance of such a portfolio under significant economic stress conditions. We consider a traditional framework for the analysis of credit risk where the probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and exposure at default (EAD) are explicitly considered. The unsecure and revolving nature of credit card lending is naturally modeled in this framework. Our results indicate that unemployment, and in particular the level and change in unemployment, plays a significant role in the probability of transition across delinquency states in general and the probability of default in particular. The effect is heterogeneous and proportionally has a more significant impact for high credit score and for high-utilization accounts. Our results also indicate that unemployment and a downturn in economic conditions play a quantitatively small, or even irrelevant, role in the changes in account balance associated with changes in an account's delinquency status, and in the exposure at default specifically. The impact of a downturn in economic conditions and, in particular, changes in unemployment on the recovery rate and loss given default is found to be large. These findings are of particular relevance for the analysis of credit risk regulatory capital under the IRB approach within the Basel II capital accord.

Welfare generosity, Premarital fertility, First marriage, Unobserved heterogeneity, I00, J10,