We present a mathematical transmission model of tuberculosis in the USA. The model is calibrated to recent trends of declining incidence in the US-born and foreign-born populations and is used in assessing relative impacts of treatment of latently infected individuals on elimination time, where elimination is defined as annual incidence <1 case/million. Provided current control efforts are maintained, elimination in the US-born population can be achieved before the end of this century. However, elimination in the foreign-born population is unlikely in this timeframe even with higher rates of targeted testing and treatment of residents of and immigrants to the USA with latent tuberculosis infection. Cutting transmission of disease as an interim step would shorten the time to elimination in the US-born population but foreign-born rates would remain above the elimination target.
In the United States, infant mortality risks among Hispanics have not been previously evaluated at the national level. We used the 1983 and 1984 national Linked Birth and Infant Death data sets to compare infant mortality risks among single-delivery infants of Hispanic descent with those among single-delivery infants of non-Hispanic whites (the reference group). We also included the 1983 and 1984 linked birth cohort for single-delivery infants in Puerto Rico. Among all Hispanic groups, the neonatal (less than 28 days) mortality risk was higher among Puerto Rican islanders (relative risk [RR] = 2.3) and continental Puerto Ricans (RR = 1.5) and lower among Cuban-Americans (RR = 1.0) and Mexican-Americans (RR = 1.0). The postneonatal mortality risk (28 to 364 days) was highest among continental Puerto Ricans (RR = 1.2) and lowest among Cuban-Americans (RR = 0.6). Our study underscores the heterogeneity of the Hispanic population in the United States and suggests that interventions to prevent infant mortality be tailored to ethnic-specific risk factors and outcomes.
Although the excess risk for birth defects among children of mothers with diabetes mellitus is well documented, there are few data concerning the risk for specific malformations. In the Atlanta Birth Defects Case-Control Study, those risks for malformations were evaluated. The population-based study included 4929 live and stillborn babies with major malformations ascertained by the Metropolitan Atlanta Congenital Defects Program in the first year of life born to residents of Metropolitan Atlanta between 1968 and 1980. The study also included 3029 nonmalformed live babies who were frequency-matched to case babies by race, period of birth, and hospital of birth. The relative risk for major malformations among infants of mothers with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitu (n = 28) was 7. (5% confidence interval [CI]1.9, 33.5) compared with infants of nondiabetic mothers. The relative risks for major central nervous system and cardiovascular system defects were 15.5 (95% CI = 3.3, 73.8) and 18.0 (95% CI = 3.9, 82.5), respectively. The absolute risks for major, central nervous system, and cardiovascular system malformations among infants of diabetic mothers were 18.4, 5.3, and 8.5 per 100 live births, respectively. Infants of mothers with gestational diabetes mellitus who required insulin during the third trimester of pregnancy were 20.6 (95% CI = 2.5, 168.5) times more likely to have major cardiovascular system defects than infants of nondiabetic mothers. The absolute risk for infants of this group of diabetic mothers was 9.7%. No statistically significant differences were found among infants of mothers with gestational diabetes mellitus who did not require insulin during pregnancy. These results suggest a stronger association than previously reported between maternal diabetes mellitus and specific categories of major malformations and implicate gestational diabetes mellitus as a risk factor for major cardiovascular system defects.
We investigated the relationship between maternal thyroid disease and the risk of birth defects in offspring using data from a large population-based, case-control study. Cases included 4904 stillborn and liveborn infants with major anomalies diagnosed in the first year of life and born to residents of metropolitan Atlanta between 1968 and 1980. Controls included 3027 normal babies, frequency-matched to cases by race, hospital of birth and quarter of birth. We compared mothers of cases and controls regarding history of physician-diagnosed hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism before the infant's birth, age at diagnosis of thyroid condition, duration of illness, and intake of thyroid medications before and during pregnancy. Information obtained from maternal interviews was evaluated for concordance with hospital records. We adjusted for potentially confounding factors using conditional logistic regression analysis. Overall, there was no relationship between the risk of total birth defects and history of maternal hypothyroidism (odds ratio (OR) = 1.05, 95% C.I. 0.84-1.31), maternal hyperthyroidism (OR = 1.00, 95% C.I. 0.66-1.53), and intake of thyroid hormone and antithyroid drugs before and during pregnancy. In an analysis of 66 specific birth defects and defect groups, we found two statistically significant associations with hypothyroidism and three with hyperthyroidism which may reflect chance findings. In an evaluation of babies with multiple anomalies, we observed a two-fold increased risk with hypothyroidism but no discernible pattern of defects. The absolute risk of major birth defects in offspring of women with history of hypothyroidism can be estimated as 2.1%, a finding at odds with the 10-20% risk cited in the literature.
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