BackgroundAlthough the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic ceased to be a public health emergency by the end of 2016, studies to improve knowledge about this emerging disease are still needed, especially those investigating a causal relationship between ZIKV in pregnant women and microcephaly in neonates. However, there are still many challenges in describing the relationship between ZIKV and microcephaly. The few studies focusing on the epidemiological profile of ZIKV and its changes over time are largely limited to systematic reviews of case reports and dispersal mapping of ZIKV spread over time without quantitative methods to analyze patterns and their covariates. Since Brazil has been at the epicenter of the ZIKV epidemic, this study examines the geospatial association between ZIKV and microcephaly in Brazil.MethodsOur study is categorized as a retrospective, ecological study based on secondary databases. Data were obtained from January to December 2016, from the following data sources: Brazilian System for Epidemiological Surveillance, Disease Notification System, System for Specialized Management Support, and Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Data were aggregated by municipality. Incidence rates were estimated per 100,000 inhabitants. Analyses consisted of mapping the aggregated incidence rates of ZIKV and microcephaly, followed by a Getis-Ord-Gi spatial cluster analysis and a Bivariate Local Moran’s I analysis.ResultsThe incidence of ZIKV cases is changing the virus’s spatial pattern, shifting from Brazil’s Northeast region to the Midwest and North regions. The number of municipalities in clusters of microcephaly incidence is also shifting from the Northeast region to the Midwest and North, after a time lag is considered. Our findings suggest an increase in microcephaly incidence in the Midwest and North regions, associated with high levels of ZIKV infection months before.ConclusionThe greatest burden of microcephaly shifted from the Northeast to other Brazilian regions at the beginning of 2016. Brazil’s Midwest region experienced an increase in microcephaly incidence associated with ZIKV incidence. This finding highlights an association between an increase in ZIKV infection with a rise in microcephaly cases after approximately three months.

Every year about 3 million tourists from around the world visit Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay´s triple border region where the Iguaçu Falls are located. Unfortunately, in recent years an increasing number of autochthonous canine and human visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases have been reported. The parasite is Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum and it is transmitted by sand flies (Phlebotominae). To assess the risk factors favorable for the establishment and spread of potential vectors the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention light trap (CDC-light trap) collections were made in the Foz do Iguaçu (FI) and Santa Terezinha de Itaipu (STI) townships and along two transects between them. Our study determined the Phlebotominae fauna, the factors that affect the presence and abundance of Lutzomyia longipalpis and Nyssomyia whitmani, the presence of L. infantum in different sand fly species and which Leishmania species are present in this region. Lutzomyia longipalpis was the prevalent species and its distribution was related to the abundance of dogs. Leishmania infantum was found in Lu. longipalpis, Ny. whitmani, Ny. neivai and a Lutzomyia sp. All the results are discussed within the Stockholm Paradigm and focus on their importance in the elaboration of public health policies in international border areas. This region has all the properties of stable VL endemic foci that can serve as a source of the disease for neighboring municipalities, states and countries. Most of the urban areas of tropical America are propitious for Lu. longipalpis establishment and have large dog populations. Pan American Health Organization´s initiative in supporting the public health policies in the border areas of this study is crucial and laudable. However, if stakeholders do not act quickly in controlling VL in this region, the scenario will inevitable become worse. Moreover, L. (Viannia) braziliensis found in this study supports the need to develop public health policies to avoid the spread of cutaneous leishmaniasis. The consequences of socioeconomic attributes, boundaries and frontiers on the spread of diseases cannot be neglected. For an efficient control, it is essential that urban planning is articulated with the neighboring cities.

Dengue fever, chikungunya fever, and zika virus infections are increasing public health problems in the world, the last two diseases having recently emerged in Brazil. This ecological study employed spatial analysis of probable cases of dengue fever, chikungunya fever, and zika virus infections reported to the National Mandatory Reporting System (SINAN) in Maranhao State from 2015 to 2016. The software GeoDa version 1.10 was used for calculating global and local Moran indices. The global Moran index identified a significant autocorrelation of incidence rates of dengue (I=0.10; p=0.009) and zika (I=0.07; p=0.03). The study found a positive spatial correlation between dengue and the population density (I=0.31; p<0.001) and a negative correlation with the Performance Index of Unified Health System (PIUHS) by basic care coverage (I=-0.08; p=0.01). Regarding chikungunya fever, there were positive spatial correlations with the population density (I=0.06; p=0.03) and the Municipal Human Development Index (MHDI) (I=0.10; p=0.002), and a negative correlation with the Gini index (I=-0.01; p<0.001) and the PIUHS by basic care coverage (I=-0.18; p<0.001). Lastly, we found positive spatial correlations between Zika virus infections and the population density (I=0.13; p=0.005) and the MHDI (I=0.12; p<0.001), as well as a negative correlation with the Gini index (I=-0.11; p<0.001) and the PIUHS by basic care coverage (I=-0.05; p=0.03). Our results suggest that several socio-demographic factors influenced the occurrence of dengue fever, chikungunya fever, and zika virus infections in Maranhao State.

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Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an infectious disease predominant in countries located in the tropics. The prediction of occurrence of infectious diseases through epidemiologic modeling has revealed to be an important tool in the understanding of its occurrence dynamic. The objective of this study was to develop a forecasting model for the incidence of VL in Maranhão using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA). We collected monthly data regarding VL cases from the National Disease Notification System (SINAN) corresponding to the period between 2001 and 2018. The Box-Jenkins method was applied in order to adjust a SARIMA prediction model for VL general incidence and by sex (male or female) for the period between January 2019 and December 2013. For 216 months of this time series, 10,431 cases of VL were notified in Maranhão, with an average of 579 cases per year. With regard to age range, there was a higher incidence among the pediatric public (0 to 14 years of age). There was a predominance in male cases, 6437 (61.71%). The Box-Pierce test figures for overall, male and female genders supported by the results of the Ljung-Box test suggest that the autocorrelations of residual values act as white noise. Regarding monthly occurrences in general and by gender, the SARIMA models (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) and (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) were the ones that mostly adjusted to the data respectively. The model SARIMA has proven to be an adequate tool for predicting and analyzing the trends in VL incidence in Maranhão. The time variation determination and its prediction are decisive in providing guidance in health measure intervention.