We have little knowledge of the response of invertebrate assemblages to climate change in tropical ecosystems, and few studies have compiled long‐term data on invertebrates from tropical rainforests. We provide an updated list of the 72 species of Saturniidae moths collected on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, during the period 1958‐2016. This list will serve as baseline data for assessing long‐term changes of saturniids on BCI in the future, as 81% of the species can be identified by their unique DNA Barcode Index Number, including four cryptic species not yet formally described. A local species pool of 60 + species breeding on BCI appears plausible, but more cryptic species may be discovered in the future. We use monitoring data obtained by light trapping to analyze recent population trends on BCI for saturniid species that were relatively common during 2009‐2016, a period representing >30 saturniid generations. The abundances of 11 species, of 14 tested, could be fitted to significant time‐series models. While the direction of change in abundance was uncertain for most species, two species showed a significant increase over time, and forecast models also suggested continuing increases for most species during 2017‐2018, as compared to the 2009 base year. Peaks in saturniid abundance were most conspicuous during El Niño and La Niña years. In addition to a species‐specific approach, we propose a reproducible functional classification based on five functional traits to analyze the responses of species sharing similar functional attributes in a fluctuating climate. Our results suggest that the abundances of larger body‐size species with good dispersal abilities may increase concomitantly with rising air temperature in the future, because short‐lived adults may allocate less time to increasing body temperature for flight, leaving more time available for searching for mating partners or suitable oviposition sites.

Few data are available about the regional or local extinction of tropical butterfly species. When confirmed, local extinction was often due to the loss of host-plant species. We used published lists and recent monitoring programs to evaluate changes in butterfly composition on Barro Colorado Island (BCI, Panama) between an old (1923–1943) and a recent (1993–2013) period. Although 601 butterfly species have been recorded from BCI during the 1923–2013 period, we estimate that 390 species are currently breeding on the island, including 34 cryptic species, currently only known by their DNA Barcode Index Number. Twenty-three butterfly species that were considered abundant during the old period could not be collected during the recent period, despite a much higher sampling effort in recent times. We consider these species locally extinct from BCI and they conservatively represent 6% of the estimated local pool of resident species. Extinct species represent distant phylogenetic branches and several families. The butterfly traits most likely to influence the probability of extinction were host growth form, wing size and host specificity, independently of the phylogenetic relationships among butterfly species. On BCI, most likely candidates for extinction were small hesperiids feeding on herbs (35% of extinct species). However, contrary to our working hypothesis, extinction of these species on BCI cannot be attributed to loss of host plants. In most cases these host plants remain extant, but they probably subsist at lower or more fragmented densities. Coupled with low dispersal power, this reduced availability of host plants has probably caused the local extinction of some butterfly species. Many more bird than butterfly species have been lost from BCI recently, confirming that small preserves may be far more effective at conserving invertebrates than vertebrates and, therefore, should not necessarily be neglected from a conservation viewpoint.

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Robust data to refute or support claims of global insect decline are currently lacking, particularly for the soil fauna in the tropics. DNA metabarcoding represents a powerful approach for rigorous spatial and temporal monitoring of the taxonomically challenging soil fauna. Here, we provide a detailed field protocol, which was successfully applied in Barro Colorado Island (BCI) in Panama, to collect soil samples and arthropods in a tropical rainforest, to be later processed with metabarcoding. We also estimate the proportion of soil/litter ant, springtail and termite species from the local fauna that can be detected by metabarcoding samples obtained either from Berlese-Tullgren (soil samples), Malaise or light traps. Each collecting method detected a rather distinct fauna. Soil and Malaise trap samples detected 213 species (73%) of all target species. Malaise trap samples detected many ant species, whereas soil samples were more efficient at detecting springtail and termite species. With respect to long-term monitoring of soil-dwelling and common species (more amenable to statistical trends), the best combination of two methods were soil and light trap samples, detecting 94% of the total of common species. A protocol including 100 soil, 40 Malaise and 80 light trap samples annually processed by metabarcoding would allow the long-term monitoring of at least 11%, 18% and 16% of species of soil/litter ants, springtails and termites, respectively, present on BCI, and a high proportion of the total abundance (up to 80% of all individuals) represented by these taxa.

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