No abstract

Predicting where state-changing thresholds lie can be inherently complex in ecosystems characterized by nonlinear dynamics. Unpacking the mechanisms underlying these transitions can help considerably reduce this unpredictability. We used empirical observations, field and laboratory experiments, and mathematical models to examine how differences in nutrient regimes mediate the capacity of macrophyte communities to sustain sea urchin grazing. In relatively nutrient-rich conditions, macrophyte systems were more resilient to grazing, shifting to barrens beyond 1 800 g m−2 (urchin biomass), more than twice the threshold of nutrient-poor conditions. The mechanisms driving these differences are linked to how nutrients mediate urchin foraging and algal growth: controlled experiments showed that low-nutrient regimes trigger compensatory feeding and reduce plant growth, mechanisms supported by our consumer–resource model. These mechanisms act together to halve macrophyte community resilience. Our study demonstrates that by mediating the underlying drivers, inherent conditions can strongly influence the buffer capacity of nonlinear systems.

Humans are rapidly transforming the structural configuration of the planet's ecosystems, but these changes and their ecological consequences remain poorly quantified in underwater habitats. Here, we show that the loss of forest-forming seaweeds and the rise of ground-covering 'turfs' across four continents consistently resulted in the miniaturization of underwater habitat structure, with seascapes converging towards flattened habitats with smaller habitable spaces. Globally, turf seascapes occupied a smaller architectural trait space and were structurally more similar across regions than marine forests, evidencing habitat homogenization. Surprisingly, such habitat convergence occurred despite turf seascapes consisting of vastly different species richness and with different taxa providing habitat architecture, as well as across disparate drivers of marine forest decline. Turf seascapes contained high sediment loads, with the miniaturization of habitat across 100s of km in mid-Western Australia resulting in reefs retaining an additional ~242 million tons of sediment (four orders of magnitude more than the sediments delivered fluvially annually). Together, this work demonstrates that the replacement of marine forests by turfs is a generalizable phenomenon that has profound consequences for the ecology of temperate reefs. | 5263 PESSARRODONA Et Al.

Predators exert a strong influence on ecological communities by reducing the abundance of prey (consumptive effects) and shaping their foraging behavior (non‐consumptive effects). Although the prevalence of trophic cascades triggered by non‐consumptive effects is increasingly recognized in a wide range of ecosystems, how its relative strength changes as prey individuals grow in size along various life stages remains poorly resolved. We investigated how the effects of predators vary with the ontogeny of a key herbivorous sea urchin, which is responsible for transforming diverse macroalgal forests to a barren state dominated by bare rock and encrusting coralline algae. We conducted a series of field and laboratory experiments to determine how susceptibility to predation, prey behavioral responses, and grazing impact on algal cover vary with sea urchin size. The consumptive effects of predators were greater on smaller sea urchin size classes, which were more susceptible to predation. Unexpectedly however, predator non‐consumptive effects acted only on larger sea urchins, significantly reducing their grazing activity in the presence of predator cues. Crucially, only these larger sea urchins were capable of overgrazing macroalgae in the field, with non‐consumptive effects reducing sea urchin foraging activity and macroalgal grazing impact by 60%. The decoupling between risk and fear as prey grow indicates that the strength of consumptive and non‐consumptive trophic cascades may act differently at different ontogenetic stages of prey. While the consumptive effects of predators directly influence population numbers, the consequences of non‐consumptive effects may far outlive consumptive effects as prey grow, finding refuge in size, but not from fear.

There is increasing uncertainty of how marine ecosystems will respond to rising temperatures. While studies have focused on the impacts of warming on individual species, knowledge of how species interactions are likely to respond is scant. The strength of even simple two-species interactions is influenced by several interacting mechanisms, each potentially changing with temperature. We used controlled experiments to assess how plant-herbivore interactions respond to temperature for three structural dominant macrophytes in the Mediterranean and their principal sea urchin herbivore. Increasing temperature differentially influenced plant-specific growth, sea urchin growth and metabolism, consumption rates and herbivore preferences, but not movement behaviour. Evaluating these empirical observations against conceptual models of plant-herbivore performance, it appears likely that while the strength of herbivory may increase for the tested macroalga, for the two dominant seagrasses, the interaction strength may remain relatively unchanged or even weaken as temperatures rise. These results show a clear set of winners and losers in the warming Mediterranean as the complex factors driving species interactions change.

29! 30!The Mediterranean Sea has sustained historically high levels of fishing since pre-Roman times. 31!This once-abundant sea has witnessed major declines in apex predators, now largely restricted 32! to isolated pockets within marine reserves. This depletion could critically impact macrophyte 33! communities that are strongly structured by top-down processes. We evaluated rates of 48!retain areas where trophic function persists; identifying these areas is critical to preserving the 49! remaining ecological integrity of these coastlines.

The prevalence of local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity among populations is critical to accurately predicting when and where climate change impacts will occur. Currently, comparisons of thermal performance between populations are untested for most marine species or overlooked by models predicting the thermal sensitivity of species to extirpation.Here we compared the ecological response and recovery of seagrass populations (Posidonia oceanica) to thermal stress throughout a year-long translocation experiment across a 2800km gradient in ocean climate. Transplants in central and warm-edge locations experienced temperatures > 29°C, representing thermal anomalies > 5°C above long-term maxima for cool-edge populations, 1.5°C for central and < 1°C for warm-edge populations.Cool-edge, central and warm-edge populations differed in thermal performance when grown under common conditions, but patterns contrasted with expectations based on thermal geography. Cool-edge populations did not differ from warm-edge populations under common conditions and performed significantly better than central populations in growth and survival.Our findings reveal that thermal performance does not necessarily reflect the thermal geography of a species. We demonstrate that warm-edge populations can be less sensitive to thermal stress than cooler, central populations suggesting that Mediterranean seagrasses have greater resilience to warming than current paradigms suggest.

Corallivorous crown-of-thorns starfishes ( Acanthaster spp.) can decimate coral assemblages on Indo-Pacific coral reefs during population outbreaks. While initial drivers of population irruptions leading to outbreaks remain largely unknown, subsequent dispersal of outbreaks appears coincident with depletion of coral prey. Here, we used in situ time-lapse photography to characterize movement of the Pacific crown-of-thorns starfish ( Acanthaster cf. solaris ) in the northern and southern Great Barrier Reef in 2015, during the fourth recorded population outbreak of the starfish, but prior to widespread coral bleaching. Daily tracking of 58 individuals over a total of 1117 h revealed all starfish to move a minimum of 0.52 m, with around half of all tracked starfish showing negligible daily displacement (less than 1 m day −1 ), ranging up to a maximum of 19 m day −1 . Movement was primarily nocturnal and daily displacement varied spatially with variation in local availability of Acropora spp., which is the preferred coral prey. Two distinct behavioural modes emerged: (i) homing movement, whereby tracked paths (as tested against a random-walk-model) involved short displacement distances following distinct ‘outward' movement to Acropora prey (typically displaying ‘feeding scars') and ‘homebound' movement to nearby shelter; versus (ii) roaming movement, whereby individuals showed directional movement beyond initial tracking positions without return. Logistic modelling revealed more than half of all tracked starfish demonstrated homing when local abundance (percentage cover) of preferred Acropora coral prey was greater than 33%. Our results reveal facultative homing by Acanthaster with the prey-dependent behavioural switch to roaming forays providing a mechanism explaining localized aggregations and diffusion of these population irruptions as prey is locally depleted.