We propose a forecasting approach for solar flares based on data from Solar Cycle 24, taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. In particular, we use the Spaceweather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) product that facilitates cut-out magnetograms of solar active regions (AR) in the Sun in near-realtime (NRT), K. Florios cflorios@aueb.gr I. Kontogiannis K. Florios et al.taken over a five-year interval (2012 -2016). Our approach utilizes a set of thirteen predictors, which are not included in the SHARP metadata, extracted from line-of-sight and vector photospheric magnetograms. We exploit several Machine Learning (ML) and Conventional Statistics techniques to predict flares of peak magnitude >M1 and >C1, within a 24 h forecast window. The ML methods used are multi-layer perceptrons (MLP), support vector machines (SVM) and random forests (RF). We conclude that random forests could be the prediction technique of choice for our sample, with the second best method being multi-layer perceptrons, subject to an entropy objective function. A Monte Carlo simulation showed that the best performing method gives accuracy ACC=0.93(0.00), true skill statistic TSS=0.74(0.02) and Heidke skill score HSS=0.49(0.01) for >M1 flare prediction with probability threshold 15% and ACC=0.84(0.00), TSS=0.60(0.01) and HSS=0.59(0.01) for >C1 flare prediction with probability threshold 35%.

We report new polarimetric and photometric maps of the massive star-forming region OMC-1 using the HAWC+ instrument on the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA). We present continuum polarimetric and photometric measurements of this region at 53, 89, 154, and 214

High-resolution Airborne Wide-band Camera (HAWC[Formula: see text]) is the facility far-infrared imager and polarimeter for SOFIA, NASA’s Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy. It is designed to cover the portion of the infrared spectrum that is completely inaccessible to ground-based observatories and which is essential for studies of astronomical sources with temperatures between tens and hundreds of degrees Kelvin. Its ability to make polarimetric measurements of aligned dust grains provides a unique new capability for studying interstellar magnetic fields. HAWC[Formula: see text] began commissioning flights in April 2016 and was accepted as a facility instrument in early 2018. In this paper, we describe the instrument, its operational procedures, and its performance on the observatory.

We explore the association of non-neutralized currents with solar flare occurrence in a sizable sample of observations, aiming to show the potential of such currents in solar flare prediction. We use the regularly produced high quality vector magnetograms by the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager and more specifically the Space weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP). Through a newly established method, that incorporates detailed error analysis, we calculate the non-neutralized currents contained in active regions (AR). Two predictors are produced, namely the total and the maximum unsigned non-neutralized current. Both are tested in AR time-series and a representative sample of point-in-time observations during the interval 2012-2016. The average values of non-neutralized currents in flaring active regions are by more than an order of magnitude higher than in non-flaring regions and correlate very well with the corresponding flare index. The temporal evolution of these parameters appears to be connected to physical processes, such as flux emergence and/or magnetic polarity inversion line formation that are associated with increased solar flare activity. Using Bayesian inference of flaring probabilities, it is shown that the total unsigned non-neutralized current outperforms significantly the total unsigned magnetic flux and other well established current-related predictors. Thus, it shows good prospects for inclusion in an operational flare forecasting service. We plan to use the new predictor in the framework of the FLARECAST project along with other highly performing predictors.

We report on polarimetric maps made with HAWC+/SOFIA toward ρ Oph A, the densest portion of the ρ Ophiuchi molecular complex. We employed HAWC+ bands C (89 µm) and D (154 µm). The slope of the polarization spectrum was investigated by defining the quantity R DC = p D /p C , where p C and p D represent polarization degrees in bands C and D, respectively. We find a clear correlation between R DC and the molecular hydrogen column density across the cloud. A positive slope (R DC > 1) dominates the lower density and well illuminated portions of the cloud, that are heated by the high mass star Oph S1, whereas a transition to a negative slope (R DC < 1) is observed toward the denser