In this Asian cohort study, the Baveno VI criteria were able to identify who could safely avoid screening endoscopy. The expanded Baveno VI criteria could spare more endoscopies but also could increase the odds of missing a high-risk varix.
The predictive role of lactate in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) has been suggested. This study evaluated several lactate parameters in terms of predicting outcomes of bleeding patients and sought to establish a new scoring model by combining lactate parameters and the AIMS65 score. A total of 114 patients with NVUGIB who underwent serum lactate level testing at least twice and endoscopic hemostasis within 24 hours after admission were retrospectively analyzed. The associations between five lactate parameters and clinical outcomes were evaluated and the predictive power of lactate parameter combined AIMS65s (L-AIMS65s) and AIMS56 scoring was compared. The most common cause of bleeding was gastric ulcer (48.2%). Lactate clearance rate (LCR) was associated with 30-day rebleeding (odds ratio [OR], 0.931; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.872–0.994; P = 0.033). Initial lactate (OR, 1.313; 95% CI, 1.050–1.643; P = 0.017), maximal lactate (OR, 1.277; 95% CI, 1.037–1.573; P = 0.021), and average lactate (OR, 1.535; 95% CI, 1.137–2.072; P = 0.005) levels were associated with 30-day mortality. Initial lactate (OR, 1.213; 95% CI, 1.027–1.432; P = 0.023), maximal lactate (OR, 1.271; 95% CI, 1.074–1.504; P = 0.005), and average lactate (OR, 1.501; 95% CI, 1.150–1.959; P = 0.003) levels were associated with admission over 7 days. Although L-AIMS65s showed the highest area under the curve for prediction of each outcome, differences between L-AIMS65s and AIMS65 did not reach statistical significance. In conclusion, lactate parameters have a prognostic role in patients with NVUGIB. However, they do not increase the predictive power of AIMS65 when combined.
Esophageal endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) can be attempted in superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SESCC) invading the upper submucosal layer (SM1: invasion < 200 μm). This study aimed to determine endoscopic predictive features associated with beyond SM1 invasion in SESCC and establish a predictive model using the identified features. This study retrospectively analyzed 203 esophageal ESD for SESCC. Endoscopic images were reviewed by two endoscopists. Tumors were evaluated for main shape, sizes, and surface characteristics. The association between each endoscopic feature and beyond SM1 invasion was evaluated. Using the significant endoscopic features in multivariate analysis, a predictive model for beyond SM1 invasion in SESCC was established. Among 203 SESCCs, 40 (19.7%) invaded beyond SM1. Multivariate analysis revealed that surface nodularity [odds ratio (OR) 41.340, 95% confidence interval (CI) 8.492–201.252, p < 0.001], surface granularity (OR 18.682, 95% CI 4.818–72.440, p < 0.001), surface unevenness, (OR 4.107, 95% CI 1.160–14.543, p = 0.029), deep depression (OR 27.490, 95% CI 2.897–260.853, p = 0.004), and thick notch (OR 41.701, 95% CI 6.646–261.672, p < 0.001) were independently associated with beyond SM1 invasion. An established model showed an area under the curve of 0.921 with 95% CI 0.881–0.960. The best cut-off value showed the following: sensitivity, 0.85; specificity, 0.83; positive predictive value, 0.55; and negative predictive value, 0.96. In conclusion, endoscopic features can predict beyond SM1 invasion in SESCC. Our prediction model is potentially useful for screening ESD candidates in SESCC.
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