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ObjectiveAn unmet need exists for a non-invasive biomarker assay to aid gastric cancer diagnosis. We aimed to develop a serum microRNA (miRNA) panel for identifying patients with all stages of gastric cancer from a high-risk population.DesignWe conducted a three-phase, multicentre study comprising 5248 subjects from Singapore and Korea. Biomarker discovery and verification phases were done through comprehensive serum miRNA profiling and multivariant analysis of 578 miRNA candidates in retrospective cohorts of 682 subjects. A clinical assay was developed and validated in a prospective cohort of 4566 symptomatic subjects who underwent endoscopy. Assay performance was confirmed with histological diagnosis and compared with Helicobacter pylori (HP) serology, serum pepsinogens (PGs), ‘ABC’ method, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and cancer antigen 19–9 (CA19-9). Cost-effectiveness was analysed using a Markov decision model.ResultsWe developed a clinical assay for detection of gastric cancer based on a 12-miRNA biomarker panel. The 12-miRNA panel had area under the curve (AUC)=0.93 (95% CI 0.90 to 0.95) and AUC=0.92 (95% CI 0.88 to 0.96) in the discovery and verification cohorts, respectively. In the prospective study, overall sensitivity was 87.0% (95% CI 79.4% to 92.5%) at specificity of 68.4% (95% CI 67.0% to 69.8%). AUC was 0.848 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.88), higher than HP serology (0.635), PG 1/2 ratio (0.641), PG index (0.576), ABC method (0.647), CEA (0.576) and CA19-9 (0.595). The number needed to screen is 489 annually. It is cost-effective for mass screening relative to current practice (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio=US$44 531/quality-of-life year).ConclusionWe developed and validated a serum 12-miRNA biomarker assay, which may be a cost-effective risk assessment for gastric cancer.Trial registration numberThis study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (Registration number: NCT04329299).

ObjectiveTo investigate the incidence of gastric cancer (GC) attributed to gastric intestinal metaplasia (IM), and validate the Operative Link on Gastric Intestinal Metaplasia (OLGIM) for targeted endoscopic surveillance in regions with low-intermediate incidence of GC.MethodsA prospective, longitudinal and multicentre study was carried out in Singapore. The study participants comprised 2980 patients undergoing screening gastroscopy with standardised gastric mucosal sampling, from January 2004 and December 2010, with scheduled surveillance endoscopies at year 3 and 5. Participants were also matched against the National Registry of Diseases Office for missed diagnoses of early gastric neoplasia (EGN).ResultsThere were 21 participants diagnosed with EGN. IM was a significant risk factor for EGN (adjusted-HR 5.36; 95% CI 1.51 to 19.0; p<0.01). The age-adjusted EGN incidence rates for patients with and without IM were 133.9 and 12.5 per 100 000 person-years. Participants with OLGIM stages III–IV were at greatest risk (adjusted-HR 20.7; 95% CI 5.04 to 85.6; p<0.01). More than half of the EGNs (n=4/7) attributed to baseline OLGIM III–IV developed within 2 years (range: 12.7–44.8 months). Serum trefoil factor 3 distinguishes (Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristics 0.749) patients with OLGIM III–IV if they are negative for H. pylori. Participants with OLGIM II were also at significant risk of EGN (adjusted-HR 7.34; 95% CI 1.60 to 33.7; p=0.02). A significant smoking history further increases the risk of EGN among patients with OLGIM stages II–IV.ConclusionsWe suggest a risk-stratified approach and recommend that high-risk patients (OLGIM III–IV) have endoscopic surveillance in 2 years, intermediate-risk patients (OLGIM II) in 5 years.