Marine life is controlled by multiple physical and chemical drivers and by diverse ecological processes. Many of these oceanic properties are being altered by climate change and other anthropogenic pressures. Hence, identifying the influences of multifaceted ocean change, from local to global scales, is a complex task. To guide policy-making and make projections of the future of the marine biosphere, it is essential to understand biological responses at physiological, evolutionary and ecological levels. Here, we contrast and compare different approaches to multiple driver experiments that aim to elucidate biological responses to a complex matrix of ocean
Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of the Baltic Sea were performed for the period 1850-2098, and projected changes in the future climate were compared with the past climate environment. For the past period 1850-2006, atmospheric, hydrological and nutrient forcings were reconstructed, based on historical measurements. For the future period 1961-2098, scenario simulations were driven by Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. 1 1748-9326/12/034005+08$33.00 c 2012 IOP Publishing Ltd Printed in the UK Environ. Res. Lett. 7 (2012) 034005 H E M Meier et alregionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air-and riverborne nutrient load scenarios (ranging from a pessimistic 'business-as-usual' to the most optimistic case). To estimate uncertainties, different models for the various parts of the Earth system were applied. Assuming the IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B or A2, we found that water temperatures at the end of this century may be higher and salinities and oxygen concentrations may be lower than ever measured since 1850. There is also a tendency of increased eutrophication in the future, depending on the nutrient load scenario. Although cod biomass is mainly controlled by fishing mortality, climate change together with eutrophication may result in a biomass decline during the latter part of this century, even when combined with lower fishing pressure. Despite considerable shortcomings of state-of-the-art models, this study suggests that the future Baltic Sea ecosystem may unprecedentedly change compared to the past 150 yr. As stakeholders today pay only little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies, more information is needed to raise public awareness of the possible impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems.
It is well known that ocean acidification can have profound impacts on marine organisms. However, we know little about the direct and indirect effects of ocean acidification and also how these effects interact with other features of environmental change such as warming and declining consumer pressure. In this study, we tested whether the presence of consumers (invertebrate mesograzers) influenced the interactive effects of ocean acidification and warming on benthic microalgae in a seagrass community mesocosm experiment. Net effects of acidification and warming on benthic microalgal biomass and production, as assessed by analysis of variance, were relatively weak regardless of grazer presence. However, partitioning these net effects into direct and indirect effects using structural equation modeling revealed several strong relationships. In the absence of grazers, benthic microalgae were negatively and indirectly affected by sediment-associated microalgal grazers and macroalgal shading, but directly and positively affected by acidification and warming. Combining indirect and direct effects yielded no or weak net effects. In the presence of grazers, almost all direct and indirect climate effects were nonsignificant. Our analyses highlight that (i) indirect effects of climate change may be at least as strong as direct effects, (ii) grazers are crucial in mediating these effects, and (iii) effects of ocean acidification may be apparent only through indirect effects and in combination with other variables (e. g., warming). These findings highlight the importance of experimental designs and statistical analyses that allow us to separate and quantify the direct and indirect effects of multiple climate variables on natural communities.food web | global warming | herbivory | species interaction | top-down
Energy availability and local adaptation are major components in mediating the effects of ocean acidification (OA) on marine species. In a long‐term study, we investigated the effects of food availability and elevated pCO2 (ca. 400, 1000 and 3000 μatm) on growth of newly settled Amphibalanus (Balanus) improvisus to reproduction, and on their offspring. We also compared two different populations, which were presumed to differ in their sensitivity to pCO2 due to differing habitat conditions: Kiel Fjord, Germany (Western Baltic Sea) with naturally strong pCO2 fluctuations, and the Tjärnö Archipelago, Sweden (Skagerrak) with far lower fluctuations. Over 20 weeks, survival, growth, reproduction and shell strength of Kiel barnacles were all unaffected by elevated pCO2, regardless of food availability. Moulting frequency and shell corrosion increased with increasing pCO2 in adults. Larval development and juvenile growth of the F1 generation were tolerant to increased pCO2, irrespective of parental treatment. In contrast, elevated pCO2 had a strong negative impact on survival of Tjärnö barnacles. Specimens from this population were able to withstand moderate levels of elevated pCO2 over 5 weeks when food was plentiful but showed reduced growth under food limitation. Severe levels of elevated pCO2 negatively impacted growth of Tjärnö barnacles in both food treatments. We demonstrate a conspicuously higher tolerance to elevated pCO2 in Kiel barnacles than in Tjärnö barnacles. This tolerance was carried over from adults to their offspring. Our findings indicate that populations from fluctuating pCO2 environments are more tolerant to elevated pCO2 than populations from more stable pCO2 habitats. We furthermore provide evidence that energy availability can mediate the ability of barnacles to withstand moderate CO2 stress. Considering the high tolerance of Kiel specimens and the possibility to adapt over many generations, near future OA alone does not seem to present a major threat for A. improvisus.
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