Influence of more than 20 years (1988-2010) of reduced tillage (RT) practices on water and pesticide balances and dynamics is analyzed and compared to results from a conventional tillage plot (CT). The field study soils are described as silty clay stagnic luvisol, developed on a low permeable schist layer. A drainage network was set up according to French criteria (0.9 m deep, 10 m space) to avoid soil winter waterlogging. Climate is temperate oceanic and drainage generally occurs from November to March. Data were analyzed at yearly, weekly (pesticides) and hourly (water) time steps. Over the long term, cumulated drainage decreases significantly on RT (3999 mm) compared to CT (5100 mm). This differentiation becomes significant from 1999, 10 years after plowing was stopped. Strikingly, hourly drainage peak flows are higher under RT, especially during the second period (2000-2010), associated with low or no base flow. These results suggest a strong influence of the macropore network under RT practice. In particular, drainage peaks are higher at the beginning of the drainage season (mid-October to December). Consistently, pesticides applied in late autumn, which are the most quantified on this site, are often significantly more exported under RT. For atrazine, applied in spring, fluxes are linked to cumulative flow and are de facto higher under CT. For others pesticides, losses appear to be heterogeneous, with generally low or null export rates for spring application. Generally speaking, higher concentrations are measured on RT plot and explain observed exportation rate differences. Finally, there is no clear evidence of correlation between pesticide losses and long-term impacts of RT on hydrodynamics, pointing the importance of studying the short-term effect of tillage on water and especially solute flow.

• Information on predictive quality of pesticide risk indicators is scarce • Outputs of 26 indicators and 1 model were compared to pesticide measurements in water • 3 comparison tests were performed for a dataset of 1040 measurements from 3 sites • Predictive quality was low to medium for the indicators and acceptable for the model • The model and indicators with medium predictive quality can be recommended for use Stakeholders need operational tools to assess crop protection strategies in regard to environmental impact. The need to assess and report on the impacts of pesticide use on the environment has led to the development of numerous indicators. However, only a few studies have addressed the predictive quality of these indicators. This is mainly due to the limited number of datasets adapted to the comparison of indicator outputs with pesticide measurement. To our knowledge, evaluation of the predictive quality of pesticide indicators in comparison to the quality of water as presented in this article is unprecedented in terms of the number of tested indicators (26 indicators and the MACRO model) and in terms of the size of datasets used (data collected for 4 transfer pathways, 20 active ingredients (a.i.) for a total of 1040 comparison points). Results obtained on a.i. measurements were compared to the indicator outputs, measured by: (i) correlation tests to identify linear relationship, (ii) probability tests comparing measurements with indicator outputs, both classified in 5 classes, and assessing the probability i.e. the percentage of correct estimation and overestimation (iii) by ROC tests estimating the predictive ability against a given threshold. Results showed that the correlation between indicator outputs and the observed transfers are low (r b 0.58). Overall, more complex indicators taking into account the soil, the climatic and the G R A P H I C A L A B S T R A C T a b s t r a c t a r t i c l e i n f o Contents lists available at ScienceDirectScience of the Total Environment j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w . e l s e v i e r . c o m / l o c a t e / s c i t o t e n v environmental aspects yielded comparatively better results. The numerical simulation model MACRO showed much better results than those for indicators. These results will be used to help stakeholders to appropriately select their indicators, and will provide them with advice for possible use and limits in the interpretation of indicator outputs.

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BACKGROUND Thanks to the changes in aquatic risk assessment within the marketing authorization (MA) process in France, the contamination of surface water through the subsurface drainage network is better accounted for. The measure adopted by risk regulations is to prohibit any use of selected pesticides on drained plots. Herbicide solutions on subsurface‐drained plots are becoming scarce due to a limited number of innovations combined with the re‐approvals process. Autumn weed management then becomes a major issue for winter cropping systems on drained plots. Unlike runoff prevention, few risk management measures are available to prevent the risks associated with drained plots. RESULTS We analyzed data from La Jaillière, an ARVALIS experimental site (nine plots, 1993 to 2017), representative of scenario D5 from the EU FOCUS Group, for four herbicides (isoproturon, aclonifen, diflufenican, flufenacet). Our study demonstrates the relevance of the time application management measure by showing the decreasing trend in the transfer of pesticides in drained plots. In addition, it validates, still on the La Jaillière site, the hypothesis of a management measure based on an indicator of soil profile saturation before drainage flow (soil wetness index, SWI). CONCLUSIONS A conservative measure consisting of restricting pesticide applications during autumn, when the SWI is <85% of saturation, reduces the risk by a factor of 4–12 for quantification above the predicted no‐effect concentration and values of maximum or flow weight average concentrations by 70‐ and 27‐fold, ratio of exported pesticide by 20‐fold, and total flux by 32. This measure based on SWI threshold appears to be more efficient than those using other restriction factors. SWI can be easily calculated by considering the local weather data and soil properties for any drained field. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

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