Many marine mammal predators, particularly pinnipeds, have increased in abundance in recent decades, generating new challenges for balancing human uses with recovery goals via ecosystem-based management. We used a spatio-temporal bioenergetics model of the Northeast Pacific Ocean to quantify how predation by three species of pinnipeds and killer whales (Orcinus orca) on Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) has changed since the 1970s along the west coast of North America, and compare these estimates to salmon fisheries. We find that from 1975 to 2015, biomass of Chinook salmon consumed by pinnipeds and killer whales increased from 6,100 to 15,200 metric tons (from 5 to 31.5 million individual salmon). Though there is variation across the regions in our model, overall, killer whales consume the largest biomass of Chinook salmon, but harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) consume the largest number of individuals. The decrease in adult Chinook salmon harvest from 1975–2015 was 16,400 to 9,600 metric tons. Thus, Chinook salmon removals (harvest + consumption) increased in the past 40 years despite catch reductions by fisheries, due to consumption by recovering pinnipeds and endangered killer whales. Long-term management strategies for Chinook salmon will need to consider potential conflicts between rebounding predators or endangered predators and prey.

Conflicts can arise when the recovery of one protected species limits the recovery of another through competition or predation. The recovery of many marine mammal populations on the west coast of the United States has been viewed as a success; however, within Puget Sound in Washington State, the increased abundance of three protected pinniped species may be adversely affecting the recovery of threatened Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and endangered killer whales (Orcinus orca) within the region. Between 1970 and 2015, we estimate that the annual biomass of Chinook salmon consumed by pinnipeds has increased from 68 to 625 metric tons. Converting juvenile Chinook salmon into adult equivalents, we found that by 2015, pinnipeds consumed double that of resident killer whales and six times greater than the combined commercial and recreational catches. We demonstrate the importance of interspecific interactions when evaluating species recovery. As more protected species respond positively to recovery efforts, managers should attempt to evaluate tradeoffs between these recovery efforts and the unintended ecosystem consequences of predation and competition on other protected species.

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Although most eastern North Pacific (ENP) gray whales feed in the Bering, Beaufort, and Chukchi Seas during summer and fall, a small number of individuals, referred to as the Pacific Coast Feeding Group (PCFG), show intra-and interseasonal fidelity to feeding areas from northern California through southeastern Alaska. We used both mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and 12 microsatellite markers to assess whether stock structure exists among feeding grounds used by ENP gray whales. Significant mtDNA differentiation was found when samples representing the PCFG (n = 71) were compared with samples (n = 103) collected from animals feeding further north (F ST = 0.012, P = 0.0045). No significant nuclear differences were 1

Most of our knowledge on reproductive biology of gray whales dates back to scientific research conducted during commercial whaling in the late 1950s and 1960s. The goal of the present study was to provide updated insights on reproductive physiology of gray whales, using progesterone and testosterone as biomarkers. We measured hormone concentrations using enzyme immunoassay (EIA) techniques in blubber biopsies collected from 106 individual whales from March to November over a span of 12 years (2004–2016) between California and Alaska. We found testosterone concentrations in males to increase significantly with age (P = 0.03). Adult males showed significantly elevated testosterone concentrations when sampled in the fall compared to the summer (P = 0.01), likely indicating physiological preparation for mating. We measured testosterone concentrations in females of different age classes, but no statistical differences were found. We found significantly higher progesterone concentrations in pregnant females compared to non-pregnant females and adult males (P< 0.001), indicating progesterone is a valid biomarker for pregnancy in gray whales. Both female and male calves had elevated progesterone concentrations, suggesting maternal transfer via lactation. We fit a mixture of two normal distributions to progesterone data from all non-calf females to identify clusters of high and low progesterone and estimated the probability of being pregnant for whales of unknown reproductive status. With this approach we identified likely pregnant and non-pregnant animals. This study represents an important milestone on reproductive profiles in this population, that can be used to estimate more accurate and precise reproductive parameters to be used for better understanding population dynamics of gray whales.