Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) models have been successfully applied to lead optimisation, virtual screening and other areas of drug discovery over the years. Recent studies, however, have focused on the development of models that are predictive but often not interpretable. In this article, we propose the application of a piecewise linear regression algorithm, OPLRAreg, to develop both predictive and interpretable QSAR models. The algorithm determines a feature to best separate the data into regions and identifies linear equations to predict the outcome variable in each region. A regularisation term is introduced to prevent overfitting problems and implicitly selects the most informative features. As OPLRAreg is based on mathematical programming, a flexible and transparent representation for optimisation problems, the algorithm also permits customised constraints to be easily added to the model. The proposed algorithm is presented as a more interpretable alternative to other commonly used machine learning algorithms and has shown comparable predictive accuracy to Random Forest, Support Vector Machine and Random Generalised Linear Model on tests with five QSAR data sets compiled from the ChEMBL database.Keywords: qsar · regression · piecewise regression · mathematical programming · integer programming[a] J.
Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) models are critical in various areas of drug discovery, for example in lead optimisation and virtual screening. Recently, the need for models that are not only predictive but also interpretable has been highlighted. In this paper, a new methodology is proposed to build interpretable QSAR models by combining elements of network analysis and piecewise linear regression. The algorithm presented, modSAR, splits data using a two-step procedure. First, compounds associated with a common target are represented as a network in terms of their structural similarity, revealing modules of similar chemical properties. Second, each module is subdivided into subsets (regions), each of which is modelled by an independent linear equation. Comparative analysis of QSAR models across five data sets of protein inhibitors obtained from ChEMBL is reported and it is shown that modSAR offers similar predictive accuracy to popular algorithms, such as Random Forest and Support Vector Machine. Moreover, we show that models built by modSAR are interpretatable, capable of evaluating the applicability domain of the compounds and serve well tasks such as virtual screening and the development of new drug leads.
The Open Source Malaria (OSM) consortium is developing compounds that kill the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum, by targeting PfATP4, an essential ion pump on the parasite surface. The structure of PfATP4 has not been determined. Here, we describe a public competition created to develop a predictive model for the identification of PfATP4 inhibitors, thereby reducing project costs associated with the synthesis of inactive compounds. Competition participants could see all entries as they were submitted. In the final round, featuring private sector entrants specializing in machine learning methods, the best-performing models were used to predict novel inhibitors, of which several were synthesized and evaluated against the parasite. Half possessed biological activity, with one featuring a motif that the human chemists familiar with this series would have dismissed as “ill-advised”. Since all data and participant interactions remain in the public domain, this research project “lives” and may be improved by others.
Social network data are often constructed by incorporating reports from multiple individuals. However, it is not obvious how to reconcile discordant responses from individuals. There may be particular risks with multiply reported data if people’s responses reflect normative expectations—such as an expectation of balanced, reciprocal relationships. Here, we propose a probabilistic model that incorporates ties reported by multiple individuals to estimate the unobserved network structure. In addition to estimating a parameter for each reporter that is related to their tendency of over- or under-reporting relationships, the model explicitly incorporates a term for ‘mutuality’, the tendency to report ties in both directions involving the same alter. Our model’s algorithmic implementation is based on variational inference, which makes it efficient and scalable to large systems. We apply our model to data from a Nicaraguan community collected with a roster-based design and 75 Indian villages collected with a name-generator design. We observe strong evidence of ‘mutuality’ in both datasets, and find that this value varies by relationship type. Consequently, our model estimates networks with reciprocity values that are substantially different than those resulting from standard deterministic aggregation approaches, demonstrating the need to consider such issues when gathering, constructing, and analysing survey-based network data.
<p>The discovery of new antimalarial medicines with novel mechanisms of action is key to combating the problem of increasing resistance to our frontline treatments. The Open Source Malaria (OSM) consortium has been developing compounds ("Series 4") that have potent activity against <i>Plasmodium falciparum</i> <i>in vitro</i> and <i>in vivo</i> and that have been suggested to act through the inhibition of <i>Pf</i>ATP4, an essential membrane ion pump that regulates the parasite’s intracellular Na<sup>+</sup> concentration. The structure of <i>Pf</i>ATP4 is yet to be determined. In the absence of structural information about this target, a public competition was created to develop a model that would allow the prediction of anti-<i>Pf</i>ATP4 activity among Series 4 compounds, thereby reducing project costs associated with the unnecessary synthesis of inactive compounds.</p>In the first round, in 2016, six participants used the open data collated by OSM to develop moderately predictive models using diverse methods. Notably, all submitted models were available to all other participants in real time. Since then further bioactivity data have been acquired and machine learning methods have rapidly developed, so a second round of the competition was undertaken, in 2019, again with freely-donated models that other participants could see. The best-performing models from this second round were used to predict novel inhibitory molecules, of which several were synthesised and evaluated against the parasite. One such compound, containing a motif that the human chemists familiar with this series would have dismissed as ill-advised, was active. The project demonstrated the abilities of new machine learning methods in the prediction of active compounds where there is no biological target structure, frequently the central problem in phenotypic drug discovery. Since all data and participant interactions remain in the public domain, this research project “lives” and may be improved by others.
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