Most existing flexible count distributions allow only approximate inference when used in a regression context. This work proposes a new framework to provide an exact and flexible alternative for modeling and simulating count data with various types of dispersion (equi-, under-, and over-dispersion). The new method, referred to as “balanced discretization”, consists of discretizing continuous probability distributions while preserving expectations. It is easy to generate pseudo random variates from the resulting balanced discrete distribution since it has a simple stochastic representation (probabilistic rounding) in terms of the continuous distribution. For illustrative purposes, we develop the family of balanced discrete gamma distributions that can model equi-, under-, and over-dispersed count data. This family of count distributions is appropriate for building flexible count regression models because the expectation of the distribution has a simple expression in terms of the parameters of the distribution. Using the Jensen–Shannon divergence measure, we show that under the equidispersion restriction, the family of balanced discrete gamma distributions is similar to the Poisson distribution. Based on this, we conjecture that while covering all types of dispersions, a count regression model based on the balanced discrete gamma distribution will allow recovering a near Poisson distribution model fit when the data are Poisson distributed.
Several effective COVID-19 vaccines are administered to combat the COVID-19 pandemic globally. In most African countries, there is a comparatively limited deployment of vaccination programs. In this work, we develop a mathematical compartmental model to assess the impact of vaccination programs on curtailing the burden of COVID-19 in eight African countries considering SARS-CoV-2 cumulative case data for each country for the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model stratifies the total population into two subgroups based on individual vaccination status. We use the detection and death rates ratios between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals to quantify the vaccine’s effectiveness in reducing new COVID-19 infections and death, respectively. Additionally, we perform a numerical sensitivity analysis to assess the combined impact of vaccination and reduction in the SARS-CoV-2 transmission due to control measures on the control reproduction number (Rc). Our results reveal that on average, at least 60% of the population in each considered African country should be vaccinated to curtail the pandemic (lower the Rc below one). Moreover, lower values of Rc are possible even when there is a low (10%) or moderate (30%) reduction in the SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate due to NPIs. Combining vaccination programs with various levels of reduction in the transmission rate due to NPI aids in curtailing the pandemic. Additionally, this study shows that vaccination significantly reduces the severity of the disease and death rates despite low efficacy against COVID-19 infections. The African governments need to design vaccination strategies that increase vaccine uptake, such as an incentive-based approach.
The widely used logistic model for epidemic case reporting data may be either restrictive or unrealistic in presence of containment measures when implemented after an epidemic outbreak. For flexibility in epidemic case reporting data modeling, we combined an exponential growth curve for the early epidemic phase with a flexible growth curve to account for the potential change in growth pattern after implementation of containment measures. We also fitted logistic regression models to recoveries and deaths from the confirmed positive cases. In addition, the growth curves were integrated into a SIQR (Susceptible, Infective, Quarantined, Recovered) model framework to provide an overview on the modeled epidemic wave. We focused on the estimation of: (1) the delay between the appearance of the first infectious case in the population and the outbreak (“epidemic latency period”); (2) the duration of the exponential growth phase; (3) the basic and the time-varying reproduction numbers; and (4) the peaks (time and size) in confirmed positive cases, active cases and new infections. The application of this approach to COVID-19 data from West Africa allowed discussion on the effectiveness of some containment measures implemented across the region.
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